Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 12.05.2011
Gold and silver ended the first week of December with moderate change; the U.S. employment report, which was published on Friday, seems to have had a modest effect on the precious metals prices. Today, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report will be published and Australia's' Cash Rate decision will be announced.
Gold slightly rose on Friday by 0.66% to $1,751.3; silver on the other hand moderately declined by 0.22% to $32.69. The chart herein presents the changes of gold and silver in the past couple of weeks (normalized gold and silver to November 17th 2011). During last week gold slightly inclined by 2.1% and silver by 1.4%.
U.S. Non-farm Employment Rose by 120k in November
In the recent report for November, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 120k; the U.S unemployment rate sharply fell to 8.6%. This report may have slightly affected gold and silver: During the past year there was a negative relation between the U.S. non-farm report and bullion prices so that as the U.S. employment grew, gold and silver tended to decrease that day.
Despite the negative correlations, gold slightly rose on Friday and silver moderately declined as indicated above.
On Today's Agenda
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the changes of non-manufacturing sector during November 2011. During October this index remained nearly unchanged at 53.9%; this index might affect commodities traders (see here last report).
Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia's Reserve Bank will probably remain unchanged at 4.75%;
Forex / Gold & Silver– Update
The Euro/USD declined on the last day of the week by 0.53% to 1.3391. Other forex currencies such as the Australian dollar also depreciated against the US dollar. The positive correlations between gold and silver and exchange rates may further play a role in the development of gold and silver throughout the day. The chart below shows the development of the correlations of gold and silver with EURO/USD. During the past couple of months silver price (daily percent changes) and Euro/USD were strongly positively correlated.
Gold and Silver Outlook:
Gold and silver continue to seek direction and don't show a clear path on the first few days of December. But the precious metals prices could start to rise as the week will progress and the plans of the European Union leaders in stabilizing the markets will unveil. The U.S. economic reposts such as the non-manufacturing PMI might help rally the markets if it will turn out to show an improvement.
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About the Author: Lior Cohen, M.A in Economics, a commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.
By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.