Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Prices Daily Outlook 10.28.2011
Gold and silver recorded additional sharp gains yesterday following the European Union debt agreement; the news of the U.S GDP growth in Q3 may have also helped push commodities up as the confidence in the markets grew. Today, U.S. Employment Cost Index will be published and U.S. Personal Income and Outlays report.
Gold rose on Thursday by 1.40% to $1,747.7; silver also sharply inclined by 5.41% to $35.11. During October, gold increased by 7.7% and silver by 16.7%.
US GDP Grew by 2.5% in Q3 2011
As reported yesterday, the growth rate of the real U.S GDP 2011 in the third quarter of 2011 was 2.5%. This news probably helped rally not only the American stock market (see below) but also major commodities such as oil and gold.
Euro Summit –Cutting the Greek and Debt and Boost EFSF
The EU Summit ended with several key resolutions including: cutting the Greek debt by 50%; boosting the EFSF (the European rescue fund) from 440 billion euros to 1 trillion euros. This increase should ease the pressure in the financial community and ease the concerns revolving the European debt.
This news seems to have helped boost the confidence levels of commodities, stocks and forex traders to help rally these markets yesterday.
USD / Gold & Silver– October
The Euro/US Dollar sharply increased yesterday by 2.04% to reach 1.4189; other currencies also were traded sharply up against the USD including CAD, and AUD. It seems that the effect of the sharp gains in the "risk currencies" (i.e. AUD, Euro and CAD) was strong in helping push gold and silver up. The chart below shows the strong correlations among the gold and silver daily percent changes in the daily percent changes of major exchange rates. If said currencies will continue their rally today they might add to the gains in gold and silver.
Gold and silver continued their rally as they have rose throughout the week at spectacular rates; The EU summit agreement didn't curb the gains in the gold and silver and actually continued the rally via the depreciation of the USD: the news of the EU summit sharply affected the forex market so that the Euro sharply appreciated against the USD resulting in gains to gold and silver. The news of the increase in the growth rate in U.S's GDP in the third quarter may have helped rally major commodities such as crude oil and gold. Following the sharp gains, there might not be much excitement today as there was yesterday so that there could even be a correction for gold and silver after their upward trend in recent days.
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Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.
By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG
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