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Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Daily Outlook 10.11.2011

Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Daily Outlook 10.11.2011

2011-10-11 18:12:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Oil Prices – Daily Outlook October 11

Oil prices sharply inclined yesterday, and currently they are traded slightly up. Today, Jean Claude Trichet gave a speech about the current situation in the Euro Area and the debt crisis, the OPEC monthly report was also published today and showed a slight drop in OPEC's oil production.

On Monday, October 10th oil price (WTI) sharply inclined by 2.93% to $85.41/b; Brent also rose by 2.61% to $105.87/b; during October WTI rose by 4.32% and Brent by 3.04%.

The chart below presents the prices development of WTI and Brent during October (prices are normalized to 100= 30 of September).

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Prices_Daily_Outlook_10.11.2011_body_oil_price_11.png, Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Daily Outlook 10.11.2011

The premium of Brent over WTI inclined on Monday to $23.22. During October there was a slight downward trend for this premium as it declined by 1.40%.

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Prices_Daily_Outlook_10.11.2011_body_Difference_11.png, Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Daily Outlook 10.11.2011

OPEC's Oil Production Slipped in September

OPEC's oil production slightly slipped by 77 thousand bbl/d in September to 29,896 thousand bbl/d. Libya's oil production was still very low at 96 thousand bbl/d compared with an average of nearly 1.6 million bbl/d back in 2010.

The main reason for the slip in OPEC's oil production was due to the drop in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria's oil production as it fell by 122 thousand bbl/d and 162 thousand bbl/d, respectively. For the rest of the OPEC monthly report analysis see here.

Forex and Oil– October

The EURO/ USD exchange rate sharply inclined on Monday by 1.97%. Furthermore, the USD depreciated against the AUD, GBP and CAD. The speculation around the European crisis and the policymakers' promises to handle the situation affects the forex markets to shift directions nearly on a daily basis and consequently also affects the major energy commodities prices. If the USD will continue to depreciate against the above-mentioned currencies, this shift may affect oil prices to incline.

Oil Prices Outlook:

Oil prices sharply inclined yesterday over the gains in the U.S. stock markets and the depreciation of the US dollar; the current situation in the market is that these markets are neither rising nor falling resulting in slight movement for oil prices as well. The speculation around the progress in the U.S economy and the European debt crisis will continue to rule the markets' directions. I speculate that WTI will dwell around $83-$88 and Brent around $103-$110 during the second week of October.

For further reading:

Natural gas prices outlook for September 2011

Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG

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