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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 10.10.2011

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 10.10.2011

2011-10-10 14:10:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Gold & Silver - Daily Outlook October 10

Gold and silver changed direction again and slightly slipped on the last day of last week, after the U.S. non-farm employment report showed an increase of 103k in employment during September. Currently, gold and silver are traded up. The speculation around the European debt crisis continues to be high with an update of the recent news on this issue herein. Today, the French and Italian industrial production report will be published, and Japan's current account. Here is a market outlook of precious metals for today, October 10th:

Gold declined on Friday by 1.05% to $1,635.8; silver sharply fell by 3.16% to $30.99. The chart below shows the development of gold and silver during October (normalized gold and silver (September 30th 2011=100)). During October gold inclined by 0.8% and silver by 3.0%.

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_10.10.2011_body_Gold_10.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 10.10.2011

From the European Debt Crisis Front – Update and Analysis

Following the tumbling of Dexia, it was reported today that Belgium has agreed to pay 4 billion euros to purchase the local unit of the bank.

Fitch, rating agency, followed the footsteps of S&P and Moody's and announced it lowered the credit rating of Italy and Spain.

These news items could affect traders by adding uncertainly to the financial markets and consequentially push traders towards safe haven investments including gold and silver. This analysis coincides with the recent report from Bloomberg that short selling is at the highest level since 2006.

U.S Employment Grew by 103k in September

The U.S. employment inclined in September by 103,000 according to the last U.S. labor report, which was published on Friday, October 7th by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 9.1%.

Historically, as the U.S employments rise gold tend to decrease; this correlation was mostly due to the effect this news had on the USD; the recent news seem to have worked again in the same direction as indicated in the updated table below:

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_10.10.2011_body_U.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 10.10.2011

It shows the correlation between the news of the U.S. labor report and the daily changes in gold and silver up to the last report of October 7th, 2011 (the complete analysis can be found in the gold and silver prices daily outlook for October 7th).

USD/ Gold & Silver– October

The EURO/USD slightly slipped on Friday by 0.44% to reach 1.3378; the CAD also followed and depreciated against the US Dollar by 0.24%. If major risky currencies (AUD and CAD) will change direction and start to appreciate against the USD, they may help gold and silver prices to incline.

Gold and Silver Outlook:

Gold and silver changed direction on Friday and fell following the U.S. labor report, but currently they are traded slightly up. The bullion continues to demonstrate lack of direction with the speculation around the European debt crisis news brings each day mixed signals. The recent news from U.S. about the labor report might keep the misdirection of the precious metals' prices in the short run, but as long as the uncertainty in the markets remains high, gold and silver will likely to make a comeback and their prices will continue their moderate rally during October.

Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):

Today

07:45 – French Industrial Production Report

09:00 – Italy's Industrial Production Report

24:50 – Japan's current account

01:30 – Australia's business confidences survey

For further reading:

Weekly Outlook for October 10-14

Gold and Silver Prices Monthly Outlook for October 2011

Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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