Guest Commentary: Oil Prices Daily Outlook 09.19.2011
Oil Prices – Daily Outlook September 19
Oil prices ended the week falling, resulting in WTI losing only 0.96% of it value during September (up to date) and Brent shed 1.8%. The recent appreciation of USD on Friday may have assisted crude oil prices to lose ground. Currently, Euro/USD is falling. This might continue to affect the direction of oil prices throughout the day. Today, the minutes of the last Monetary Policy meeting of Australia's Central bank will be published.
On Friday, September 16th oil price (WTI) declined by 1.61% to $87.96/b; Brent also declined by 0.15% to $114.38/b; during September WTI slightly fell by 0.96%; Brent fell by 1.80%.
The premium of Brent over WTI changed direction from a downward trend in recent weeks to a sharp increase in the past couple of days. The premium reached on Friday $26.42. During September, this premium fell by 4.52%.
On Today's Agenda:
Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting: The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank of Australia will be published, regarding the recent decision of the Bank's basic interest rate; this decision might also affect traders' of Australian dollar currency and consequently crude oil prices.
USD/ Oil Prices – September Update
The Euro/USD changed direction and fell on Friday by 0.58%; during September the Euro/USD fell by 3.99%. The appreciation of USD against the Euro and AUD seems to affect major commodities prices including oil prices. Currently the USD is traded up against EURO and AUD. If this trend will continue throughout the day, it may affect oil prices as well to trade down.
S&P500 / Oil Prices – September
The S&P500 increased on Friday by 0.57%; in past week the S&P500 gained back 5.35% to its value; during September, it slightly slipped by 0.24%. There is a strong positive correlation between crude oil prices and S&P500 of 0.556 with WTI and 0.405 with Brent. If the US stock markets will continue to rise, it may curb some of the falls of oil prices throughout the day.
Oil Price Outlook:
Oil prices didn't do much during the month, but they are likely to trade down and decline throughout the rest of September, over the concerns of the economic progress of the US and Europe. Bloomberg already reported that several Funds are starting to cut their bullish bets on raw materials including gasoline. The disappointing figures of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for August, and the further appreciation of the USD might assist oil prices to decline. In the near future, I still think WTI will remain around $85-$90 mark and Brent oil around $110-$115, but during the remainder of September oil prices are likely to moderately decline.
For further reading: Weekly Outlook for September 19-23
Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.
By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG
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