Guest Commentary: Gold Daily Outlook 07.25.11
Gold and silver started the week with rises as the talks over raising the US debt ceiling reached a stalemate over the weekend. Today, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will give a speech.
Let's examine the precious metals market for today, July 25th:
Gold and Silver–July
Silver also inclined by 3.02% to $40.12.
During July, gold increased by 6.6%, and silver inclined by 15.2%.
The chart below shows the normalized gold and silver (June 30th 2011=100).
US Debt Ceiling – Still a Stalemate Following Weekend Talks
The weekend ended with no resolution or agreement between Republicans and President Obama over changing the Federal law to raise the US debt ceiling. The deadline before US is expected to default on its loans is scheduled to August 2nd; therefore, the parties have until then to reach an agreement by raising the debt ceiling, which is currently at its cap of $14.3 trillion. The major rating agencies including Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings claimed that even if US will reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling in due time, it doesn’t guarantee they won't downgrade US's AAA credit rating; if US won't raise the debt ceiling by August 2nd, they said they will cut US's rating. This news will continue to occupy the financial market and may affect not only the US dollar but also the US financial markets: despite the recent news that the U.S. Treasuries longer-term notes holdings by other countries inclined during May 2011, this upward trend might shift direction in the following months as U.S. Treasuries longer-term notes will become riskier than before; the S&P500 also didn't perform well during July as seen in the chart below, and gold and silver have substantially outperformed the S&P500 index.
USD / Gold & Silver– July Update
The Euro/USD finished the week with a moderate drop of 0.45%, and during July this exchange rate fell by 1%; on the other hand, during July (UTD) the USD depreciated against the AUD by 1.2% and CAD by 1.6%.
In the next few days we might continue to see the US dollar depreciating against major currencies due to the debate over the US debt ceiling talks; this might help push gold and silver up, even though during last week USD depreciated, but gold and silver prices declined during most of the week.
Gold and Silver Outlook:
Gold and silver started the week with rises and thus continue the upward trend of recent weeks. If the US debt ceiling talks won't result in an agreement this might weaken the USD, and drive investors to commodities mainly precious metals; this might further drive up gold and silver in the following days.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
4.05 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Governor Stevens talks
15.00 – US consumer confidence
15:00 – U.S. new home sales
For further reading:Gold and silver prices outlook for July 2011
Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.
By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst forTrading NRG
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.