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Guest Commentary: Weekly Unemployment Claims - A Decline of 29,000; 4-Week Moving Average Up 1,250

Guest Commentary: Weekly Unemployment Claims - A Decline of 29,000; 4-Week Moving Average Up 1,250

2011-05-19 15:08:00
Doug Short, dshort.com,
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The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. Claims fell 29,000 from a 4,000 upward revision of the previous week. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending May 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 438,000. The 4-week moving average was 439,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 437,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending May 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 7 was 3,711,000, a decrease of 81,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,792,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,728,250, an increase of 750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,727,500.

Today's number was below the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 420,000 claims but above briefing.com's own more optimistic 400,000.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (shown in the callouts) is a more useful number than the weekly data.

Guest_Commentary_Weekly_Unemployment_Claims_A_Decline_of_29000_4-Week_Moving_Average_Up_1250__body_Guest1.gif, Guest Commentary: Weekly Unemployment Claims - A Decline of 29,000; 4-Week Moving Average Up 1,250

Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author's bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Guest_Commentary_Weekly_Unemployment_Claims_A_Decline_of_29000_4-Week_Moving_Average_Up_1250__body_Guest2.gif, Guest Commentary: Weekly Unemployment Claims - A Decline of 29,000; 4-Week Moving Average Up 1,250

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the long-term trends.

Guest_Commentary_Weekly_Unemployment_Claims_A_Decline_of_29000_4-Week_Moving_Average_Up_1250__body_Guest3.gif, Guest Commentary: Weekly Unemployment Claims - A Decline of 29,000; 4-Week Moving Average Up 1,250

The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides an overview on seasonal adjustment here (scroll down about half way down). For more specific insight into the adjustment method, check out the BLS Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation.

For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.

Doug Short is a retired first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career was a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK).

Doug is especially interested in secular market trends and economic cycles. He has been an avid spreadsheet user since the early 1980s and was a beta tester for the first release of Excel and Quicken.

His dshort.com website is part of his pro-bono efforts to assist others in maintaining control of their financial life cycles in an increasingly complex world economy.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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