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Guest Commentary: Weekly Oil Recap 03.28.2011

Guest Commentary: Weekly Oil Recap 03.28.2011

2011-03-28 13:52:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading Energy,
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Oil prices started strong & finished weak - Weekly recap 21-25 March

Despite the uprising in the Middle East and North Africa, and the ongoing adverse ramifications of the tsunami attack in Japan (see here for more on these news and their relation to crude oil prices), oil prices didn't fluctuate as much as last week, compare to their volatility in the previous week. WTI oil prices started off the week with rapid rises but as the week progressed they didn't change much as WTI spot oil settled on 105$/b.

Here is a recap for the week ending on March 25th on oil prices, and the highlights in the recent EIA oil report:

Oil prices – highlights

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Recap_3.28.2011_body_table_crude_oil_price_-__21-25__of_March_2011.png, Guest Commentary: Weekly Oil Recap 03.28.2011

WTI oil priceweekly average rose by 4.6% to reach an average 104.43$/b compare to last week's average price of 99.78$/b. On average, WTI daily change was 0.77%, and its price inclined by 2.58% from beginning to end of the week.

NYMEX Futures Price (April delivery) much like WTI spot price, rose by 3% from beginning to end of the week as it settled on 104.62 $/ on Friday.

These figures show WTI (spot and future) price were at a higher price level than previous week, mainly because they have started off the week strong.

Europe Brent pricealsoinclined by 0.79% from beginning to end of the week, and its weekly average price rose by 2.43% compare to previous week's average price.

The gap between the Brent and WTI spot was on Friday 10.83$/b.

The following chartsshow the changes of WTI spot, NYMEX Futures (April delivery) and Brent spot prices:

The graph below shows that WTI and Brent prices had a very moderate upward trend.

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Recap_3.28.2011_body_Crude_oil_charts_-_21-25__of_March_2011.png, Guest Commentary: Weekly Oil Recap 03.28.2011

The final chart shows oil price daily percent change during last week:

Guest_Commentary_Oil_Recap_3.28.2011_body_Crude_oil_charts_-_percent_change__21-25__of_March_2011.png, Guest Commentary: Weekly Oil Recap 03.28.2011

The graph above shows how Brent oil and WTI prices started off strong and finished with very moderate changes.

Oil Stocks –highlights:

In my recent review on last week's EIA report, oil stocks they havedeclined moderately for the sixth straight week; last week they have declined by 0.1%,a decrease of0.9 million barrels of crude oil to reach 1,765 million barrels – the lowest level since March 2010.

The average US productions (million of barrels a day) for the week of March 18th was 5.586 on a four week average, a 0.2% below the average level last week, and higher by 1.0% compare to the average production at the same time last year;

In total, there was a fall in, petroleum stocks andUS production, and a rise in importsand refineries inputs.

By: Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading Energy

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