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Gold Rises, Breaks Correlation on Central Bank Easing; LTRO, Fed in Play

Gold Rises, Breaks Correlation on Central Bank Easing; LTRO, Fed in Play

David Liu, Technical Strategist

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship. Colored values indicate week-to-week changes of over 30%.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

3 Day 15 Min

-0.33

0.69

0.61

0.58

0.40

0.09

-0.59

1 Week 60 Min

0.76

-0.23

-0.33

0.67

-0.32

0.69

-0.71

2 Week 60 Min

-0.01

0.48

-0.07

-0.05

0.03

-0.66

0.31

1 Month Daily

0.09

-0.13

0.28

0.73

0.17

0.57

-0.81

Gold-Forex Correlations for the previous week can be found here.

Weekly Commentary: Following the approval of the second round of bailout funds for Greece totaling EUR 130 billion, gold broke previously strong correlations with riskier currencies including the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars. With the prospects of more easing coming from central banks, and a renewed sight of improvement in the overall global economy, investors headed towards higher yielding assets. However, gold continued to trend with the Euro as investors gauge the effects of the second round of long term refinancing operations (LTRO) by the ECB.

Traders will continue monitoring this week’s economic docket, highlighted by the ECB’s LTRO operations. Although sentiment is mixed over the effects of the plan to lend money to the Eurozone’s banks, the amount of interest is the most key in deciding whether it is risk-positive or Euro-diluting. Additionally, this week’s Beige Book release and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to congress could affect the anti-dollar characteristics of gold.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_02272012_Rises_on_Global_Easing.docx_body_Picture_1.png, Gold Rises, Breaks Correlation on Central Bank Easing; LTRO, Fed in PlayGold-Forex_Correlations_02272012_Rises_on_Global_Easing.docx_body_Picture_2.png, Gold Rises, Breaks Correlation on Central Bank Easing; LTRO, Fed in Play

-- Written by David Liu, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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