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Gold-Risk Correlation Increases as Drive for Liquid Dollar Safety Continues

Gold-Risk Correlation Increases as Drive for Liquid Dollar Safety Continues

2011-10-03 02:36:00
David Liu, Technical Strategist
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The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship. Colored values indicate week-to-week changes of over 30%.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

3 Day 15 Min

-0.36

0.44

0.35

0.09

0.11

-0.20

-0.08

1 Week 60 Min

-0.46

0.60

0.52

0.31

0.45

-0.01

-0.35

2 Week 60 Min

-0.29

0.46

-0.05

0.46

0.43

0.25

-0.17

1 Month Daily

-0.89

0.91

0.91

0.75

0.75

0.38

-0.67

Last week’s commentary can be found here.

Weekly Commentary: As Greece moves closer to receiving its next tranche of support after passing their 2011 and 2012 budgets, the markets remain unconvinced that aggressive budget cuts to the state sector and budget deficit targets will improve the ongoing debt crisis. The Greek Finance Ministry published reports today that the 2011 budget deficit will be seen at 8.5% of GDP while the 2012 target will be set at 6.8% of the country’s productivity. Traders will continue to watch these developments and Friday’s US NFPs as drivers for risk this week.

Although gold has recovered some of its safe haven status in the short term from last week, where there was a large jump in correlations between the yellow metal and risky currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Euro, market demand for US dollars as the more liquid haven alternative continues to increase. Similarly, ETF holdings of gold have also decreased as the retail market starts to sell as gold nears its key $1600 level.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_10032011_Gold_Becomes_Risk_Asset_body_Picture_1.png, Gold-Risk Correlation Increases as Drive for Liquid Dollar Safety ContinuesGold-Forex_Correlations_10032011_Gold_Becomes_Risk_Asset_body_Picture_2.png, Gold-Risk Correlation Increases as Drive for Liquid Dollar Safety ContinuesGold-Forex_Correlations_10032011_Gold_Becomes_Risk_Asset_body_Picture_3.png, Gold-Risk Correlation Increases as Drive for Liquid Dollar Safety Continues

Written by David Liu, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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