Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
S&P 500 Falls on Geopolitical Risks as Ukraine War Drags on for Another Day, NFP Eyed

S&P 500 Falls on Geopolitical Risks as Ukraine War Drags on for Another Day, NFP Eyed

Diego Colman, Contributing Strategist
What's on this page


  • The S&P 500 falls amid elevated geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe
  • Sentiment remains fragile on Wall Street as the crisis in Ukraine drags on for another day
  • Investors’ attention will turn to the February NFP report on Friday

Trade Smarter - Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter

Most Read: Volatility - VIX Wavers Near the 30-Handle as Geopolitics Dominates Price Action

It was another wild day on Wall Street loaded with volatility amid rising tensions surrounding the tragic military conflict unfolding in Ukraine. Against this backdrop, U.S. stocks opened mostly in positive territory, but reversed sharply lower in the afternoon trade as the crisis in Eastern Europe dragged on for a seventh day unabated. In fact, President Putin appears to be doubling down on his war of aggression, rejecting the idea of ceasefire without demilitarization of Ukraine, a non-starter for the West.

When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 tumbled 0.53% to 4,363, failing to build on the powerful rally from the previous session, a sign that geopolitics continues to constrain bullish sentiment and dominates price action.

At this point, it is hard to predict how the situation will play out, but an escalation of the crisis could push oil prices even higher than they are today, exacerbating inflationary pressures and strengthening the case for aggressive monetary tightening at a time when the U.S. economy is already cooling. Obviously, this is a bad outcome for stocks.

Equities Forecast
Equities Forecast
Recommended by Diego Colman
Get Your Free Equities Forecast
Get My Guide

Aside from geopolitics, traders should also keep an eye on incoming macro data for clues on the health of the U.S. economy. On that note, tomorrow's NFP numbers will be of great importance. Investors expect the employment survey to show an addition of 400,000 jobs in February, but an upside surprise should not be ruled out following ADP's strong print. A robust result may ease Wall Street’s concerns about the slowdown, providing some respite for stocks and acting as a short-term bullish catalyst, provided we don’t start the session on risk-off mode.

US 500 Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 7% -6% 1%
Weekly 19% -9% 4%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide


After failing to decisively break above Fibonacci resistance near the 4,387 area, the S&P 500 pivoted lower as bears resurfaced amid fragile market sentiment. If selling activity intensifies ahead of the weekend, the first technical support to consider lies at 4,280 and then 4,225. If both of these areas are breached on the downside, traders are likely to begin dumping risk assets and head for the exits, setting the stage for a potential retest of the 2022 low.

Alternatively, if the S&P 500 reclaims 4,387 and manages to rise above the 4,400 psychological level, buying interest could pick up, creating the right conditions for a move towards cluster resistance at 4,470. If this ceiling is invalidated, the index could be on its way to attack 4,550.


S&P 500 (SPX) Chart by TradingView


  • Are you just getting started? Download the beginners’ guide for FX traders
  • Would you like to know more about your trading personality? Take the DailyFX quiz and find out
  • IG's client positioning data provides valuable information on market sentiment. Get your free guide on how to use this powerful trading indicator here.

---Written by Diego Colman, Contributor

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.