We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.16%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.23%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6hcL6283Yf
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/CwF9QmReEw
  • $USDHKD: “If the HIBOR-LIBOR spread increases again, and at the same time the USD/HKD exchange rate returns to 7.85, money could indeed be moving out of Hong Kong.” - via @ING_Economics https://t.co/xWYns19eoQ
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.01% Germany 30: -0.00% France 40: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2njXMVkFO7
  • Asia Pacific Equities Update: Nikkei 225 (-0.19%), Shanghai Composite (+0.12%), ASX 200 (+0.52%), KOSPI (+0.28%)
  • My trading video for today: 'Dollar or Dow: Which Faces the Biggest Impact from the Fed Decision, Forecasts?' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/11/Dollar-or-Dow-Which-Faces-the-Biggest-Impact-from-the-Fed-Decision-Forecasts.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/K0zruCw1qy
  • Market positioning hints that NZD/USD may turn higher as the AUD/USD extends its near-term drop ahead of the Fed, UK General Election and the December 15 US-China tariff deadline $AUDUSD $NZDUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/12/11/NZDUSD-Rate-May-Rise-as-AUDUSD-Price-Falls-on-Trader-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/j1d3kkVfEf
  • Philippine keeps CPI assumption through 2020 at 2%-4%, latest estimates on 2020-2022 GDP growth at 6.5% to 7.5% -BBG $USDPHP #PHP #BSP
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.04% Silver: -0.18% Oil - US Crude: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LgsPNfcKsp
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/OY4a8ADSNd
NFP’s and Thin Markets May Lead to Whipsaw Action

NFP’s and Thin Markets May Lead to Whipsaw Action

2010-03-31 12:54:00
Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
Share:

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Fundamental Outlook
Employers in the U.S. are expected to add jobs for the second time in more than two years as payrolls are forecasted to accelerate 185K, marking the largest increase in three years. Meanwhile, the third reading for the annualized GDP report showed that the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the region increased 5.6% in the fourth quarter, while consumer confidence in March exceeded economists’ expectations as the gloom for job prospects taper off. Furthermore, durable goods orders in February advanced for a third month, with the reading climbing 0.5%, an indication that manufacturing will fuel the economic recovery as home sales continue to deteriorate. Indeed, paired with the recent improved outlook for U.S., an enhanced labor report could set the stage to trade the greenback as the economy recovers from the worst recession since the Great Depression, with an improved report dismissing any doubts about the sustainability of the recovery. Thus, if employment is released in line or exceeds expectations, this would validate our bearish EUR/USD technical outlook.

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD
EURUSD
Charts prepared by Michael Wright

EUR/USD
: Following up on my report from last week (Euro at Tests Range Ahead of U.S. Durable Goods Orders), the pair initially took out our soft targets at pivot support of 1.3428 and 1.3364 before pushing higher. Currently, the pair looks to test the upper trend line of the descending channel that has held since early December. Indeed, technical studies point further declines in the euro towards 1.3000, with gains likely to be capped around 1.35600. 


For More Technical Analysis Visit the DailyFX Technical Page

Written by Michael Wright, Daily FX Research
Questions? Comments? Email me at instructor@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.