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US Dollar Resistance Test: Trade or Fade USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

US Dollar Resistance Test: Trade or Fade USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

2019-11-12 20:19:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist

US Dollar Talking Points:

  • The next few trading days bring some big drivers on the economic calendar for the USD, with tomorrow’s CPI leading into Jerome Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday.
  • The Greenback is holding resistance at a key zone with early-November price action clawing back half of October’s losses. Which side will prevail?
  • DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

US Dollar Price Action Returns to Resistance

The US Dollar has seen price action return to the resistance zone that runs from 98.33-98.50. This zone came into play on Friday of last week and helped to hold the highs in the Greenback, but USD bulls have come right back to pose another re-test. This zone is also confluent with the 50% marker of the October sell-off, setting up a fairly interesting scenario where intermediate-term swing strategies can look at bearish setups while short-term momentum strategies can look at bullish continuation. In this webinar, I looked at scenarios on both sides of the matter.

US Dollar Eight-Hour Price Chart: Return to Resistance

us dollar eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

EUR/USD Re-Tests 1.1000

Going along with that continuation of USD-strength has been a continued sell-off in EUR/USD with price action testing a big zone of potential support. The short side of the pair could be difficult to work with at the moment, with bearish breakout potential on tests below the 1.0990 level that came into play in mid-October. Outside of that, reversals off of 1.1000 could remain attractive in the near-term until the low is taken out.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

GBP/USD Bulls Come Back into the Equation

I had looked at GBP in this week’s technical forecasts. In that piece, I was looking for support around the confluent 1.2700 zone, but that hasn’t yet come into play. What has taken place, however, was an early entrance from buyers as prices pushed up to a higher-high and then a higher-low. I had looked into the pair a little earlier today, eyeing short-term support from a Fibonacci level at 1.2819, and in the webinar I offered an updated look at the setup.

GBP/USD Two-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

AUD/USD: Aussie Sellers Slowing Down, AUD/USD Remains Bearish

On the long side of the US Dollar, AUD/USD remains as attractive. The pair ran into and produced some price action grind at a longer-term trendline last week, leading into a series of lower-lows and lower-highs. But, as looked at in the webinar, it appeared as though some support had begun to set-in as indicated by underside wicks on the last four four-hour candles. This can keep the door open for a pullback to lower-high resistance, at which point short-side strategies become attractive again.

AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

audusd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview

USD/CAD Tags Resistance: Can Sellers Take Control?

A key zone of resistance came into play earlier this morning in USD/CAD at the 1.3250 level. This psychological level had been a prior area of support and sellers have so far shown a strong reaction at this level. This can keep the door open for bearish swings in the pair, and I looked into some strategy parameters in this webinar.

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

usdcad price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


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