News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/IRly5vINGA
  • Gold prices surged to a 14-week high as the 10-year Treasury yield fell for a third day. Inflation fears and viral resurgence bolstered the appeal of the yellow metal, as Chinese buyers returned to the market. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/17/Gold-Prices-at-14-Week-High-as-Yields-Fall-Chinese-Buyers-Return.html https://t.co/0M7qQ73c65
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.68%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 84.03%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/NoT4omixyH
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.40% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GBc23P8NQJ
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.17% Germany 30: -0.05% FTSE 100: -0.10% US 500: -0.28% Wall Street: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zEojicMMU8
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zyTHSyUiMd
  • 🇹🇭 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) Actual: 0.2% Expected: -0.8% Previous: 1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • 🇹🇭 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1) Actual: -2.6% Expected: -3.3% Previous: -4.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.63% Gold: 0.37% Oil - US Crude: 0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/SnUeYQAKdi
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.24% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.35% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/d3OdjbE19m
USD Sits Near Support Ahead of FOMC & NFP, CAD at 14-Month Lows

USD Sits Near Support Ahead of FOMC & NFP, CAD at 14-Month Lows

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Enjoy Trading FX? You may enjoy our FREE trading guides.

Talking Points:

Why FOMC may not be the tier-1 event of the week

USD/CAD pushes into 14-month highs, eyeing 61.8% retracement of 2016 range

Crude Oil breaks down toward recent $47.11 pivot

JoinTylerin his daily FX Closing Bell webinar at 3pm ET.

Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, the USD fails to catch a bid. However, when one looks at the data, it’s not surprising. Tier-1 economic data has been consistently weak, and it has led some traders to wonder whether or not it is enough to get the Fed to mention that a further weakening in the US economic data could turn the sure-fire three-hike plan in 2017 into a two-hike plan. Few are expecting such a disclosure, but even a mild FOMC followed by a soft-NFP could be enough to send the DXY to new 2017 lows.

Speaking of 2017 lows, the Canadian Dollar has gone the way of Crude Oil and continues to find new sellers. Out of the commodity bloc, the Canadian Dollar or Loonie has been the worst performer, and it could be due to the correlation of the US economy and Crude Oil, both of which are failing to inspire investors at the start of May.

Looking at Crude Oil, the 12% drop since April 12 should have longer-term bulls right worried. We’ve long been watching the late March low ($47.08/11) as support that should hold if the longer-term Bullish structure will maintain any merit. Much of the selling we’ve seen has been without negative Crude Oil headlines and further concessions from OPEC members that a continuation of the supply curb is expected. However, as we’ve noted on the FX Closing Bell webinars, OPEC is starting to sound like the central banks at the start of failed QE programs. The problem with supply and demand economics as the Bank of Japan can attest to, is that it’s difficult to put a specific quantity (as in Quantitative Easing) that will change the emotions of traders worried about the longer-term fundamentals. It could be that OPEC is falling into a similar trap, which could mean we could be in for a bearish summer for crude oil.

Would you like to see what our Analysts Forecast for Crude Oil longer-term? Find out here!

Closing Bell’s Top Chart: May 2, 2017, Crude Oil barrels down towards the March low ($47.08/11)

USD Sits Near Support Ahead of FOMC & NFP, CAD at 14-Month Lows

Tomorrow’s Main Event: USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAY 03)

A rate hike is not expected, but guidance is desired. The US data has been very weak, but the speeches from Fed members in week’s past have provided confidence that they will stick to three hikes in 2017. Any evidence that the Fed could shift down expectations to two hikes if the weak data is sustained could give reason enough for USD bears to pile-on. Regardless of the verbiage from Wednesday’s FOMC, NFP on Friday will be judged by what the Fed paints as the expected economic picture going forward and could help guide the USD forward for May.

IG Trader Sentiment Highlight:JPY buyers may be fighting a losing battle

USD Sits Near Support Ahead of FOMC & NFP, CAD at 14-Month Lows

USDJPY: As of May 2, retail trader data shows 56.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.32 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 117.828; theprice has moved 5.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.0% lower than yesterday and 25.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.5% lower than yesterday and 68.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.(Emphasis Mine)

What is noteworthy to me is that we see aweek-over-week net-shorts increase on multiple JPY crosses. This could be opening up the door for further JPY weakness as we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment.

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES