News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (SEP) Actual: 55.4 Expected: 55.5 Previous: 53.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • - First presidential debate gave little indication of each candidate’s respective policies - Post-debate polling data indicates former Vice President Joe Biden outperformed Trump - Stock initially rose after the debate. S&P 500 now just shy of the Feb top https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/09/30/SP-500-Near-Key-Resistance-After-First-US-Presidential-Debate-Who-Won.html
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (SEP) Actual: 55.4 Expected: 55.5 Previous: 53.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 55.5 Previous: 53.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • 🇦🇺 Ai Group Manufacturing Index (SEP) Actual: 46.7 Previous: 49.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s correction lower against the Japanese Yen and US Dollar may be at an end, as NZD remains constructively perched above key chart support. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/8GiKFTfrMP https://t.co/d2nKfhTfqZ
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Ai Group Manufacturing Index (SEP) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 49.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Kaplan Speech due at 22:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • FDA expands U.S. safety inquiry into AstraZeneca vaccine: Reuters via BBG
  • I don't think there was even a meaningful 'hope' from the market that this was going to get through, so likely no risk retreat as part of an earnest disappointment https://t.co/9plviuDq0Y
EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing

EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing

2017-04-27 21:00:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Will EUR ride strong into May? See our forecast to find out!

Talking Points:

  • EUR traders take profit after ECB, still trading above weekend gap support
  • GBP/USD trades near 7-month high on break > 1.2905, remains bullish
  • Riksbank takes SEK lower on extended purchases

Join Tyler in hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discuss market developments.

A question that has not been asked in years is beginning to resurface. Could EUR become the new darling of G10 FX? Sure, the European economy and collective union government have its issues, but it’s fair to ask whether or not the intrinsic value is beginning to diverge for the common currency relative to market price in a positive fashion. In other words, there could be a lot of upside in EUR if the downside risks that once concerned currency traders the world over are diminishing faster than expected.

On Thursday, Mario Draghi was the most impactful central banker, as the ECB acknowledged improvement while remaining cautious. Of course, most central banks are taking that path. However, the ECB statement on Thursday provided little to encouraging the EUR bears who have been on the wrong side of some sharp moves recently.

Sterling remains in the driver seat in G8 FX. On Thursday, GBP/USD is trading near September highs as 1.29 was taken out again. Traders should keep an eye on the possible drift higher toward the top of the range near 1.3445/81. The bottom of the range is the zone that encompasses 1.2866 to 1.2775. A close above 1.2905 on a weekly basis could help signify the GBP rebound could extend.

Lastly, two key developments from today worth watching market follow-through are the Riksbank & Oil. On Thursday, Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank said they would continue bond purchases into the second half of the year, which caused government bonds to rally and the Krona to drop. Given the support in USD/SEK near 8.75, it’s worth watching to see if SEK weakness continues. Also, Oil continues to trade near critical support of the 200-DMA as sentiment shows that Bulls are loading into the long trade. A breakdown could act as a catalyst for a strong move lower that would cause Oil to align with the broader drop in commodities.

Interested in seeing what IG client’s positioning means for the GBP?Find out here!

Closing Bell’s Top Chart: April 27, 2017, Crude tests 200-DMA as momentum pushes down

EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing

Tomorrow’s Main Event: American GDP & Eurozone CPI

Many perceived that Friday’s focus would be on another shutdown of the US government due to spending disagreements. However, at the 11th hour, it seems the US Senate will pass a short-term funding bill to avoid a shutdown. Now, Friday’s focus will fall on Canadian & US GDP, which is a tier-1 release, but most of the ingredients that go into the number are comprised of already known data like durable goods. The European CPI could go a long way in improving EUR sentiment after Draghi noted that risks to the downside are diminishing on Thursday.

IG Trader Sentiment Highlight:Crude Bulls try to support a falling market

EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing

Oil - US Crude: As of April 27, retail trader data shows 75.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.05 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 19 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5073.6; price has moved 4.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 14.2% higher than yesterday and 59.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.0% lower than yesterday and 31.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.(Emphasis Mine)

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES