We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 💷 $GBP - British Pound Technical Forecast via @DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/02/20/gbp-pound-sterling-forecast-gbpusd-gbpjpy-eurgbp-charts.html
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (FEB P) due at 22:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 50.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 AUD CBA Australia PMI Mfg (FEB P) due at 22:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 49.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (FEB P) due at 22:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 50.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-20
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.46% Oil - US Crude: -0.11% Silver: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/8H6xUIYSYE
  • The Philadelphia Fed Business Survey hit its highest point since February of 2017 this morning, currently at 36.70 https://t.co/EtstOOuwr2
  • Crude #oil prices have been bolstered by receding market angst around the novel #coronavirus outbreak as well as prospects for more oil supply cuts from #OPEC next month. Get your crude oil market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/O17Hpo44V1 #OOTT https://t.co/VCUf0amr5n
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.94%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.74%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/q26NrU58ec
  • IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva: "Uncertainty is becoming the new normal". Looking at the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index certainly seems to suggest that. Not entirely by coincidence, the global aggregate of negative-yielding debt is also swelling again. https://t.co/EPSnwSssnE
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 53.78 (+0.92%), ICE Brent Crude 59.32 (+0.34%), NYM NYH Gasoline 166.80 (+0.28%). [delayed]
Euro Shows Signs of Decoupling from Risk, Will it Continue?

Euro Shows Signs of Decoupling from Risk, Will it Continue?

2010-07-06 19:26:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst
Share:

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD build upon recent gains today as the pair benefitted from renewed optimism on the back of a hawkish RBA. The Australian central bank left their target rate unchanged but hinted at future tightening which was perceived as a vote of confidence for the global economy. The Euro has been in a bullish trend as the concerns over the sovereign debt and European banking system have started to dissipate. EUR/USD support has come in spite of slumping stock markets and the 46% correlation the posses. Although, the relationship has weakened from a week ago when it peaked at 50% it still remains a driver of price action and must be accounted for when taking position in the pair. However, the recent decoupling is evidence that Euro support can exist when risk aversion grips the broader market. A brighter picture for the Euro-zone has been a driving force for the single currently and interest rate expectations increasing their correlation to 45% from 37% a month ago. However, we have see yield expectations start to turn lower which could be an ominous sign for the Euro.

PD-10-07-06-01

ECB Interest Rate Expectations

European fundamental data has shown that the region’s economy may have more resiliency than expected with investor confidence improving to -1.4 versus expectations of a decline to -5.0, an upward revision in the PMI services reading for June and May retail sales just missing the monthly forecast. However, we have seen interest rate expectations slip with overnight index swaps pricing in 37.1 bps of tightening over the next year down from 46 two days ago. The ECB will decide on future monetary policy on July 8th with economists expecting that the central bank will keep rates at 1.00%. Markets will look for any deviation from President Trichet’s post release comments from the ongoing rhetoric that interest rates are appropriate as risks between inflation and growth remain balanced. Discuss this and trading ideas join the EUR/USD forum.

PD-10-07-06-02

FOMC Interest Rate Expectations

A disappointing ISM reading in the service industry added to the weakness that was seen in manufacturing and the labor market last week, pointing to a slowing U.S. economy. The service sector accounts for the majority of GDP and a slowdown in its expansion from 55.4 to 53.8 supports the argument that downside risks exist for growth. The Fed has maintained their language that rates will remain low for an extend period which has put our focus at least three months for tightening to begin. Looking as far out as December we see that Fed fund futures are only giving a 17.1 % chance of a change in policy down from 31.2% a month ago.

PD-10-07-06-03

Risk

U.S. equity markets took the torch of risk appetite from European markets sending stocks soaring. However, a disappointing service sector reading ultimately was a reminder that growth remains fragile leading to indices erasing earlier gains. We could bearish momentum continue which could be a weighing factor for the EUR/USD. The 38.2% Fibo of the 6469-11,258 rally could prove to be formidable support which could be a positive for the pair which has shown resiliency to growing pessimism. Discuss this and other fundamental data in the Economics Forum.

PD-10-07-06-04

To discuss this report or be added to the email list contact John Rivera, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.