ECB Interest Rate Expectations
The outlook for European interest rates improved on the back of the bailout package with overnight index swaps pricing in 37.6 bps of tightening over the next twelve months compared with 28.3 on May 7th. However, the European central bank buying government and private debt has dimmed any chance for a rate hike in the near-term. The upcoming Euro
-zone GDP report may be the only upcoming event risk that could significantly alter yield expectations. Early forecasts are for a 0.1% increase in growth, as the region’s economy is expected to have overcome severe weather to post a quarterly gain. A disappointing figure could reignite concerns for the region and weigh in the prospect of tightening and the Euro. Conversely, strong growth in GDP would add to the brightened outlook for the region and could generate Euro support. Discuss this and trading ideas join the EUR/USD
FOMC Interest Rate Expectations
U.S. interest rate expectations rose following Friday’s U.S. labor that showed the economy added more than 200,000 jobs in the past two months. Although the report showed the unemployment rate rising to 9.9% which is the metric that policy makers have targeted as a gauge for when to raise rates, it was mainly due to new entrants into the labor market. Therefore, if the current trend continues we could start to see the level of unemployed fall, clearing the way for higher rates. Markets are only pricing in a 6.8% chance of a rate hike in June, but the increase in the prospect for a full one point hike reflects the potential for the central bank to become aggressive once they make a shift in monetary policy.
U.S. equity markets spiked higher on the back of the Greek bailout erasing losses from last week. There could be more upside potential as markets may begin to price in the positive labor market report. There is very little event risk until Friday’s U.S. retail sales report which could see markets trend sideways. An increase in consumer consumption should add tot eh improving outlook for growth and provide support for equity markets. Price action moving back above the 38.2% Fibo of the 9835-11,248 could see the level become significant support. Discuss this and other fundamental data in the Economics Forum.
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