ECB Interest Rate Expectations
It wasn’t a surprise that the ECB didn’t change interest rates and continue to see risks between inflation and growth balanced. The fact that the monetary policy committee didn’t discuss buying government debt was a bit of an eye opener for markets. There weren’t expectations that the central bank would take measures, but to not have discussions considering the prevailing crisis was surprising. President Trichet called for countries to intensify measures to cut budget deficits and proclaimed that Spain and Portugal weren’t Greece. The central bank leader Strong fundamentals from Germany continue to point toward an accelerating recovery but have been overlooked with the issues in Greece dominating headlines. Discuss this and trading ideas join the EUR/USD forum
FOMC Interest Rate Expectations
The U.S. economy is expected to have added 190,000 jobs in April which could raise the outlook for U.S. interest rates. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 9.7% which may be a more important gauge. Strong manufacturing data earlier in the week has slightly raised the outlook for yields with overnight index swaps now pricing in a 23.7% chance of a hike in September. However, the prospect for tightening in the near-term has considerably dimmed from 44.5% a month ago.
U.S. equity markets all fell over 8% at one point during the day before seeing a sharp pull back, as the issues in Greece provided the fuel for a broader panic. The extreme volatility has left markets without a clear direction and without any valid support and resistance levels. A strong U.S. labor report could see the blue chip index build upon its recent gains and lead to further retracement of today’s losses. Conversely, a disappointing labor report could lead to a continuation of the bearish momentum with the possibility of another re-test of Fibo support at 10,049. Discuss this and other fundamental data in the Economics Forum