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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: China, Germany, US Inflation Rates; US Midterm Elections; UK GDP

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: China, Germany, US Inflation Rates; US Midterm Elections; UK GDP

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • The coming days will see a renewed focus on global inflation data, with reports due from China, Germany, Mexico, and the US.
  • The outcome of the US midterm elections on Tuesday could shape the path of Federal Reserve rate hikes over the next few months.
  • UK GDP figures due later in the week are likely to paint a bleak picture for the British Pound.
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11/08 TUESDAY | ALL DAY | USD Midterm Elections

The US midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, and while the final tallies may not be known for a few days thereafter, polls indicate that Republicans are very likely to take control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as well. With a Democrat in the White House, such an outcome would portend the return of gridlock to Washington, D.C. Absent the prospect of meaningful fiscal spending over the next few years, the US growth trajectory will likely weaken, thus returning the Federal Reserve to its place as the only game in town.

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11/09 WEDNESDAY | 01:30 GMT | CNY Inflation Report (CPI) (OCT)

The Chinese government has yet to end its zero-COVID strategy, which has proved to be a significant obstacle for the Chinese economy for much of 2022. However, monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China and increased fiscal support led to a stronger 3Q’22 China GDP report than expected, suggesting the world’s second largest economy is still experiencing modest growth that could accelerate quickly once zero-COVID ends. The headline October Chinese inflation rate (CPI) is due in unchanged at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y from +2.8% y/y. Until zero-COVID ends, the Chinese Yuan isn’t likely to find significant reprieve.

11/10 THURSDAY | 13:30 GMT | USD Inflation Report (CPI) (OCT)

The upcoming October US inflation report (consumer price index) might offer a small glimmer of hope that peak inflation remains in the rearview mirror. According to a Bloomberg News survey, headline US inflation figures are due in at +0.6% m/m from +0.5% m/m and +8% y/y from +8.2% y/y, while core readings are expected at +0.5% m/m from +0.6% m/m and +6.6% y/y from +6.3% y/y. Another round of stubborn readings could reinvigorated Fed rate hike odds which fell in the wake of the October US jobs report, which while good news for the US Dollar, would likely not be the case for US stocks and gold prices.

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11/11 FRIDAY | 07:00 GMT | EUR German Inflation Report (HICP) (OCT F)

Europe’s largest economy may not be staring down an energy crisis to the degree that was feared over the summer, but price pressures continue to run rampant. According to a Bloomberg News survey, headline German inflation figures (HICP) are due in at +0.9% m/m from +1.9% m/m and +10.4% y/y from +10% y/y. While this might lead to some initial speculation that the European Central Bank may lean into additional rate hikes, the dour growth environment for the Eurozone may soon see the ECB follow the Bank of England’s path, whereby the central bank suggests that interest rates will not rise as high as markets expect in 2023.

11/11 FRIDAY | 07:00 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (SEP, 3Q)

The UK economy continues to decelerate – and that’s before the implosion of the UK Gilt market that forced former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss from office. According to a Bloomberg News survey, UK GDP contracted by -0.5% in the three-months through September. UK GDP is also expected to come in at -0.4% m/m from -0.3% m/m, and +0.9% y/y from +2% y/y. The new UK mini-budget may not help ward off a steeper setback over the coming months as government spending is slashed and tax cuts have been canceled.The BOE has already signaled that its terminal rate in 2023 will likely be lower than what was previously discounted by markets, a veritable headwind for the already-beleaguered British Pound.

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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