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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: RBA Rate Decision; US ISM Non-Manufacturing; BOC Rate Decision; ECB Rate Decision; Canada Jobs Report

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: RBA Rate Decision; US ISM Non-Manufacturing; BOC Rate Decision; ECB Rate Decision; Canada Jobs Report

Christopher Vecchio, CFA,
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FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • The firstfull week of September will produce several critical interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • The US economy takes a back seat this week with only one ‘high’ rated event scheduled.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Thursday, however.

For the full week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

09/06 TUESDAY | 04:30 GMT | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

With Australian inflation rates continuing to climb, the RBA is expected to raise rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, in what will be the fourth consecutive 50-bps rate hike. The main rate should increase to 2.35% from 1.85%. Even though they have suggested that interest rates are not on a preset course, RBA policymakers are likely to offer hawkish forward guidance, with rates markets expecting the main rate to rise to over 3.1% by the end of 2022.

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09/06 TUESDAY | 14:00 GMT | USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (AUG)

While the US economy experienced a slowdown in the first half of 2022, data for 3Q’22 thus far has led the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker to sit at +2.6% annualized. The upcoming US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for August is expected to come in at 55.1 from 56.7, suggesting that growth is decelerating but remains in modestly positive territory. The forecast is strong enough to keep intact the ‘good news is good news’ paradigm for the US Dollar, but ‘good news is bad news’ for US stocks and gold prices.

09/07 WEDNESDAY | 14:00 GMT | CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

After raising their main rate by 100-bps in July – the largest such increase since August 1998 – questions lingered about whether or not the BOC would continue with an aggressive rate hike path. Those questions may have been answered last month, when the July Canada inflation report (CPI) showed signs of decelerating price pressures. Ultimately, more monetary policy tightening is anticipated, but at a slower cadence than anticipated in July. Rates markets have a 75-bps rate hike discounted. Considering the BOC has suggested it is front-loading rate hikes, soft forward guidance may ultimately weigh on the Canadian Dollar.

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09/08 THURSDAY | 12:15, 12:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision & Press Conference

ECB policymakers have been more talkative since the Federal Reserve’s Economic Policy Symposium, offering a stark contrast in tone since the middle of the summer. While the July ECB meeting minutes revealed that there was a split over the 50-bps rate hike, intensifying Eurozone inflation pressures thanks to surging energy prices have a 75-bps rate hike now discounted as the most likely outcome this week. The ECB might be dealing with the most difficult set of circumstances among the major central banks, as a significant economic recession appears increasingly likely over the coming months; stagflation is coming to the Eurozone, which is bad news for the Euro.

09/09 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (AUG)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, the Canadian economy added +15K jobs in August after losing -30.6K jobs in July. Job gains may not be sufficient to keep up with workers entering the labor market, however, as the unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 5% from 4.9%. Coming days after the September BOC rate decision, the data may have a muted impact on the Canadian Dollar. Nevertheless, a weak Canada jobs report could prove troublesome for the Canadian Dollar, given the BOC’s stance of softer forward guidance relative to other major central banks.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.