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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Brexit, BOC & ECB Meetings, Mexican & US Inflation

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Brexit, BOC & ECB Meetings, Mexican & US Inflation

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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FX Week Ahead Overview:

  • The second week of December brings about significant event risk from around the globe, including two central bank rate decisions (BOC and ECB) and a potential conclusion to the Brexit saga.
  • Monthly seasonality for December favors risk appetite in FX markets, with the Euro and New Zealand Dollar as the top performing currencies in the past 5-years.
  • After a selloff to end November and start December, key USD-pairs have seen retail trader positioning shift enough to suggest that a turn may be coming in the near-term.
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FX Week Ahead: Strategy for Major Event Risk
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EARLY WEEK | Brexit Deal Between EU and UK

Is this the end of the Brexit saga? For several weeks, it appeared that a deal would be reached in order to avoid the worst case scenario ‘no deal, hard Brexit’ outcome. And while it seemed highly unlikely that either EU or UK Brexit negotiators and political leadership would walk away from discussions due to competition issues or fisheries…here we are.

Read more: FX Week Ahead: Brexit Deal Deadline & EUR/GBP Rate Forecast

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12/09 WEDNESDAY | 12:00 GMT | MXN Mexican Inflation (CPI) Report (NOV)

At the start of the week, Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador nominated Galia Borja Gomez, the Treasurer of the Mexican Finance Ministry, to join Banxico has deputy governor. Historically, Banxico has had a hawkish tilt, seeking to keep price pressures down even if it meant constraining growth. But the ascent of Gomez to deputy governor, coupled with downside price pressures, may be cultivating an environment where Banxico seeks to tamp down the Mexican Peso.

Read more: FX Week Ahead: November Mexican Inflation & USD/MXN Rate Forecast

12/09 WEDNESDAY | 15:00 GMT | CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (DEC)

The December Bank of Canada rate decision will conclude on Wednesday, December 9 at 15:00 GMT. The BOC has been maintaining its emergency low interest rate regime since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and amid building economic momentum, it appears unlikely that policymakers will be acting again anytime soon.

Read more: FX Week Ahead: December BOC Rate Decision and USD/CAD Rate Forecast

12/10 THURSDAY | 12:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC)

If the ECB does eventually act to cap Euro gains, then it seems less and less likely that the efforts will come vis-à-vis the interest rate channel. On Wednesday, November 11, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that “while all options are on the table, the pandemic emergency purchase program and targeted longer-term refinancing operations have proven their effectiveness. They are therefore likely to remain the main tools for adjusting our monetary policy.” More QE might be on its way, but rate cuts seem unlikely – this year or next.

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Read more: FX Week Ahead: December ECB Rate Decision and EUR/USD Rate Forecast

12/11 FRIDAY | 13:30 GMT | USD US Inflation (CPI) Report (NOV)

Marginally weaker price pressures may not do much to move the needle on Federal Reserve monetary policy, which remains exceptionally accommodative. To this end, the Fed intends on keep interest rates low through 2023. If inflation were to rise in the coming months, the greatest boost could come from the next tranche of US fiscal stimulus.

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Read more: FX Week Ahead: November US Inflation & USD/JPY Rate Forecast

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

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