News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • WTI crude oil prices fell to US$ 39.16 amid a rapid climb in US coronavirus cases and stricter counter-virus measures across the EU. A key technical range of US$ 37.00 - 41.00 may define near-term trading with a bias towards the downside. https://t.co/MDmJMC6xnH
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.86%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gzrHLaRhHV
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.10% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.24% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/zHVMRgn43I
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.41% France 40: -0.72% Wall Street: -0.75% US 500: -0.76% Germany 30: -1.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qj3vTsWnmK
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.55%) S&P 500 (-0.56%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.41%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/WL12t7h392
  • Australian Dollar Capped By Resistance Ahead of Q3 Inflation Data - https://t.co/eVEnAxS6Nz $AUD $AUDUSD https://t.co/s6GKZvuypb
  • Australian Dollar Capped By Resistance Ahead of Q3 Inflation Data - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/26/Australian-Dollar-Capped-By-Resistance-Ahead-of-Q3-Inflation-Data-.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $AUD $AUDUSD https://t.co/avW3lAP5Ts
  • Market Update $USD outperforming its major counterparts as risk appetite sours Cyclically sensitive $AUD and $CAD losing ground against their major counterparts #Gold sliding back below the $1,900/oz mark #CrudeOil down just under 1.5%
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.11% Silver: -0.89% Oil - US Crude: -1.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/aZPk6tBHNb
FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: September RBA Meeting & AUD/USD Rate Forecast

FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: September RBA Meeting & AUD/USD Rate Forecast

2019-08-30 20:50:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
Share:

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) RATE REVIEW & AUDUSD PRICE OUTLOOK:

The September RBA meeting is on deck for next week and is certainly a top event to keep on the trading radar. High-impact event risk surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate decision due for release this coming Tuesday at 4:30 GMT stands to send spot AUDUSD price action swinging despite the central bank widely expected to stay on hold. Although, the RBA’s most recent monetary policy statement noted that “it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required” which could foreshadow further dovish action in the near future.

SEPTEMBER RBA MEETING INTEREST RATE CHANGE PROBABILITIES

September RBA Meeting Interest Rate Cut Probabilities

Aussie outlook remains bleak and risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside in light of ongoing US-China trade war uncertainty. Nevertheless, there is a 12.2% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy interest rate next week according to the latest overnight swaps pricing.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR IMPLIED VOLATILITY & TRADING RANGES

Australian Dollar Implied Volatility and Trading Ranges

That said, the Australian Dollar remains at risk considering that RBA Governor Lowe could hint at another interest rate cut is coming down the road. Aussie risk is also highlighted by the rise in Australian Dollar implied volatility with the 1-week measures for the major AUD-crosses resting comfortably above their 12-month averages.

AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 08, 2019 TO AUGUST 30, 2019)

AUDUSD Price Chart Technical Analysis

We recently highlighted how Australian Dollar price action remains sluggish trade war tensions simmering. One possible explanation could be due to the looming September RBA meeting as forex traders await fundamental clarity. Consequently, Australian Dollar outlook will be largely dictated by the market’s reaction to the September RBA meeting.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES