FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR TALKING POINTS:
- The US-China trade war has reached a détente following the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan; USD/CNH remains a key barometer for traders to watch.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its main interest rate by 25-bps at its July policy meeting, according to consensus forecasts and rates markets.
- A July Fed interest rate cut is on the table, and the June US nonfarm payrolls report could be a key factor in whether the start of the rate cut cycle officially begins later this month.
07/01 to 07/05 | ALL WEEK | USD US-China Trade War Talks Restart
With oil prices falling more than 20% from their 2019 highs, measures of inflation are being pulled lower across the developed world – and the UK should not be immune from this emerging trend of disinflationary pressures. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the forthcoming May UK inflation report is due to show headline inflation in at 2% from 2.1% (y/y), while the monthly reading is due in a 0.3% from 0.6%. Core CPI is expected to have eased to 1.7% from 1.8% (y/y).
07/02 TUESDAY | 04:30 GMT | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
At its June rate decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its main interest rate by 25-bps from 1.50% to 1.25% - and they may just be getting started. According to a Bloomberg News survey, economists expect the main interest rate to be lowered by another 25-bps to 1.00% at the July RBA meeting, and overnight index swaps are pricing in a 79% chance of a cut this week. With the Australian housing market struggling and its two largest trading partners embroiled in a trade war, market participants are expecting the July RBA meeting to be just the second in a series of interest rate cuts in 2019.
07/03 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Markit/CIPS UK Service PMI & Composite PMI (JUN)
The lack of clarity over Brexit may be dampening business and consumer confidence, and in turn, UK economic activity. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the June UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI is due in unchanged at 51, while the June UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI is due in at 51 from 50.9. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion. The soft PMIs underscore what has been a deteriorating UK economic environment in recent weeks, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the UK falling from 32.4 at the start of June to -43.7 by the end of the month.
07/05 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Net Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (JUN)
Ongoing strength in the Canadian labor market has helped keep Bank of Canada interest rate cut odds at bay, even as other major central banks have begun to signal more accommodative policy moving forward. After an all-time best 106.5K jobs were added in April, there may still be a bit of a ‘give back’ period for the Canada jobs report: the May reading showed 27.7K jobs added; and the upcoming June reading is due to show gains of 10K jobs. Even with the unemployment rate set to tick higher to 5.5% from 5.4% (per consensus forecasts), the BOC is unlikely to cut its main interest rate anytime soon: overnight index swaps see a 32% chance of a 25-bps interest rate cut in 2019.
07/05 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (JUN)
Is the US labor market still a pillar of stability for the US economy, as it has been for several years now? Following the weaker than anticipated May US nonfarm payrolls report (75K actual versus 175K expected), market participants have started to become worried that the US economy is losing steam as the record expansion turns 10 years old, thanks in part to the US-China trade war.
But with the change in nonfarm payrolls report due to show headline jobs growth of 164K, there may not be much to look for in the June USjobs report (sandwiched between the US holiday on Thursday and the weekend). Indeed, the Atlanta Fed jobs calculator suggests that the US economy only needs 108K jobs per month to maintain the unemployment rate at 3.6% over the next 12-months.
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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org