We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/WQ65vhaifh
  • GBP/USD Signals to Break the Deadlock – British Pound to USD Price Forecast More details in the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2019/11/14/GBPUSD-Signals-to-Break-the-Deadlock-British-Pound-vs-USD-Price-MK.html?CHID=9&QPID=917714 https://t.co/qkDnpQ3xz4
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.01% US 500: -0.04% Wall Street: -0.05% Germany 30: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/KfsounEj8Z
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join Senior Currency Strategist @CVecchioFX as he talks about the most relevant information at the moment from the major central banks in the world. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/888096923?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • LIVE NOW: Join Currency Strategist @PaulRobinsonFX as he discusses a wide range of topics with emphasis on psychology, trade execution, and risk management with the goal of helping traders improve performance. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/602330483?CHID=9&QPID=917720
  • Join @CVecchioFX 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/11:30 AM GMT as he discusses the most relevant information from the world's most influential central banks. Register here: https://t.co/HyPgSrhjor https://t.co/jpGB7x8jTJ
  • The $USD dominant uptrend against the Singapore Dollar is at risk, though fading momentum warns of a USD/SGD turn at support. This is as the Indonesian Rupiah awaits a breakout. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/Q4STO9542u https://t.co/RbCzM8Qn7z
  • ECB's De Guindos states that countries with fiscal capacity should do more $EUR
  • 🇪🇺 EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (3Q P), Actual: 1.0% Expected: N/A Previous: 1.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-14
  • 🇪🇺 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (3Q P), Actual: 1.2% Expected: 1.1% Previous: 1.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-14
Top 5 Events: May Canada Inflation Report & CADJPY Price Forecast

Top 5 Events: May Canada Inflation Report & CADJPY Price Forecast

2019-06-14 16:35:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Canada Inflation Talking Points:

  • The May Canada inflation report (consumer price index) is due on Wednesday, June 19 at 12:30 GMT.
  • The pullback in oil prices in recent weeks appears ready to put a cap on the rebound in Canada inflation.
  • Retail tradersare net-long USDJPY and net-short USDCAD, suggesting that the Japanese Yen will rally and the Canadian Dollar will fall in the coming days.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Consumer Price Index (MAY)

The pullback in oil prices in recent weeks appears ready to put a cap on the rebound in Canada inflation – no different than what’s being experienced across the rest of the developed economic world. Crude oil prices plunged by -15.9% in May, weighing significantly on the yearly performance: at their peak, crude oil prices were up by 46.7% in 2019; at the time of writing, they were only up by 16.2% in 2019.

Accordingly, a Bloomberg News survey shows consensus forecasts pointing to headline May Canada inflation duein at 2%(y/y), unchanged from April’s pace of price pressures.The monthly reading is due in at 0.1% from 0.4% (m/m), clearer evidence disinflation is starting to appear.

It still holds that improvement in energy markets will help the Canadian Dollar and inflation rebound hand-in-hand. As such, traders should keep expectations low for a policy change from the Bank of Canada any time soon; expectations have moved lower in recent months. On June 14, overnight index swaps were pricing in only a 1.5% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by July; three months earlier, on March 14, odds of a July rate cut were 13%.

Pairs to Watch: EURCAD, CADJPY, USDCAD

CADJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (July 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

cadjpy price, cadjpy technical analysis, cadjpy chart, cadjpy price forecast, cadjpy price chart

After rebounding at the start of June, CADJPY prices appear to be ready to turn lower anew. Trading in a downtrend since peaking in April, CADJPY tried earlier this week to break the series of lower highs and lower lows. The failed bullish breakout attempt now puts focus on a return lower in the channel, now that CADJPY prices have fallen back below their daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope as well. First support comes in play near the June 6 bullish outside engulfing bar low at 80.53, then the June low at 79.97. Only a move back above the EMA envelope as well as the downtrend from the April high will warrant a reconsideration of the bearish bias for CADJPY prices.

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDCAD (June 14, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs usdcad, usdcad price chart, usdcad price forecast, usdcad technical analysis

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 40.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.45 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since June 5 when USDCAD traded near 1.34219. The number of traders net-long is 12.8% lower than yesterday and 21.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.7% higher than yesterday and 7.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.