News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Article and webinar recording can be found here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/03/Dow-Jones--Nasdaq-100-Forecasts-for-the-Week-Ahead.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.01% FTSE 100: -0.42% Germany 30: -0.43% France 40: -0.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hHbUxemSVz
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmIoVZv https://t.co/MR33o8KmJM
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/NNR3IO1gZ7
  • $NDX extends intraday losses as fears over rising yields continue to haunt high-flying equities https://t.co/RswgSX3Rk6
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.16% Gold: -1.47% Silver: -2.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/GVZ4EpYejd
  • This smells like a head-and-shoulders pattern from the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) but we don't see the same picture from the S&P 500, Dow or Russell 2000 https://t.co/GekQLeiCEg
  • Lot's of things down today, but know what isn't? Yup, longer-term #Treasury yields An average of the 10Y and 30Y having best day in about a week = portfolio rebalancing play still front and center Fed's Evans expressed little concern about yields https://t.co/tmqCSHTnIG https://t.co/MqUumhMNxI
  • - Non-labor input costs rose moderately, particularly steel and lumber prices - Rising costs attributed to strong demand and supply chain issues - Several districts anticipate modest price increases over the next several months
  • - Commercial real estate continues to struggle, particularly offices, retail, and hotels - Low mortgage rates spurred additional demand for homes - Financial institutions reported lower loan volumes, along with lower delinquency rates and higher deposit levels
FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK Inflation, Canada Inflation, Fed Meeting, New Zealand GDP, BOJ Meeting

FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK Inflation, Canada Inflation, Fed Meeting, New Zealand GDP, BOJ Meeting

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

TOP 5 EVENTS TALKING POINTS:

  • At long last, the highly anticipated June Fed meeting is on deck. All other economic data releases will be playing second fiddle over the coming week.
  • Inflation reports from the UK and Canada will show that the oil price plunge since April has started to weigh down headline inflation again.
  • The Q1’19 New Zealand GDP report might not give the RBNZ more evidence to support its efforts to cut interest rates.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (MAY)

With oil prices falling more than 20% from their 2019 highs, measures of inflation are being pulled lower across the developed world – and the UK should not be immune from this emerging trend of disinflationary pressures. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the forthcoming May UK inflation report is due to show headline inflation in at 2% from 2.1% (y/y), while the monthly reading is due in a 0.3% from 0.6%. Core CPI is expected to have eased to 1.7% from 1.8% (y/y).

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Consumer Price Index (MAY)

The pullback in oil prices in recent weeks appears ready to put a cap on the rebound in Canada inflation – no different than what’s being experienced across the rest of the developed economic world. Crude oil prices plunged by -15.9% in May, weighing significantly on the yearly performance: at their peak, crude oil prices were up by 46.7% in 2019; at the time of writing, they were only up by 16.2% in 2019. Accordingly, a Bloomberg News survey shows consensus forecasts pointing to headline May Canada inflation due in at 2%(y/y), unchanged from April’s pace of price pressures. The monthly reading is due in at 0.1% from 0.4% (m/m), clearer evidence disinflation is starting to appear.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 18:00 GMT | USD Federal Reserve Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference

With trade war concerns raging and global financial markets’ volatility steadily pushing higher, the Federal Reserve’s June meeting on Wednesday comes at a critical moment. The prospect of the US economy’s record 10-year expansion being threatened has garnered the attention of policymakers, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying that the Fed would “act as appropriate” if needed in a speech at the start of June. Overall, interest rate odds have taken an aggressive dovish turn, pulling forward expectations of three 25-bps rate cuts into 2019. While the Fed is unlikely to act in June, it’s very possible that they initiate the first rate cut as soon as the next meeting in July.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 22:45 GMT | NZD Gross Domestic Product (1Q)

Monetary policy in New Zealand has taken on a more dovish tone in recent months, with the 25-bps rate cut coming at the May RBNZ meeting. Concerns over the fallout of the US-China trade war, involving two of New Zealand’s three largest trading partners, coupled with softness in inflation readings provoked the RBNZ into efforts to mitigate any issues for the economy before they begin to gather pace. In turn, Q1’19 New Zealand GDP appears to have avoided any significant fallout, with a 2.4% annualized growth rate expected, slightly higher than the 2.3% observed in Q4’18.

06/20 THURSDAY | --:-- GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision

What you will read next should not come as a surprise: the BOJ will leave rates on hold at its meeting this coming week. With inflationary pressures below the BOJ’s target, growth underwhelming, and concerns proliferating about global trade, there’s no reason why the BOJ would deviate away from its ultra-accommodative policy stance. Given that the disinflationary, low growth environment sees no end in sight, the BOJ can’t really use its regularly scheduled policy meetings to effectuate meaningful changes in investor behavior; instead, the BOJ is more likely to surprise market participants with actions in between meetings.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES