We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.94%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9Q4yJsrfRI
  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Rise Unlikely to Undo Downtrend - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2019/10/16/EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-Euro-Rise-Unlikely-to-Undo-Downtrend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #EURUSD #technicalanalysis
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.17% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.09% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.25% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/la6Ae67t8c
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.23% US 500: -0.27% France 40: -0.29% Germany 30: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jJoCuqFBZ3
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/Kv2LHTbEYP
  • US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/INR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR $USDINR $USDSGD #ASEAN - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2019/10/16/US-Dollar-Technical-Outlook-USDINR-USDSGD-USDMYR-USDIDR.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/kMf5jZVvrx
  • Overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 100% chance of an #RBNZ rate cut in November, after briefly softening following better-than-expected New Zealand CPI data earlier today #RBNZ $NZDUSD
  • The Swedish #Krona and Norwegian #Krone will be in for a tense week ahead of #Brexit-related drama and a crucial EU summit which could be a turning point for the EU-UK divorce. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri :https://t.co/zjTNQmDHTt https://t.co/zhR7J38A4M
  • RT @cherykang: Carrie Lam just started her policy address. Lawmakers chanting "five demands, not one less." Now, policy address temporaril…
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.27% Silver: 0.14% Gold: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/TlvwJsIj0c
Top 5 Events: May Eurozone Inflation Report & EURJPY Price Forecast

Top 5 Events: May Eurozone Inflation Report & EURJPY Price Forecast

2019-05-31 20:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Eurozone Inflation Report Talking Points:

  • The initial May Eurozone inflation report is due on Tuesday, June 4 at 09:00 GMT.
  • Soft inflation readings will underscore the necessity for the European Central Bank to take dovish policy actions at the June ECB rate decision.
  • Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that EURJPY could decline further in the days ahead.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/04 TUESDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index (MAY A)

The preliminary May Eurozone Consumer Price Index is due on Tuesday, just days before European Central Bank policymakers meet for their June policy meeting. According to Bloomberg News, the headline Eurozone inflation reading is due in at 1.3% from 1.7% (y/y), while the core reading is due in at 0.9% from 1.3% (y/y).

With inflation expectations falling precipitously in the past few weeks – since May 5, the 5y5y inflation swap forwards have declined by 10-bps from 1.404% to 1.291% – it’s seems highly likely that the May inflation report will not only be weak, but it will be used as the basis for more dovish policy action by the ECB at their June meeting.

Eurozone Inflation Expectations Have Plunged Despite Brent Oil Holding Steady

eurozone inflation expectations, ez 5y5y inflation swap forwards, ez inflation expectations, brent oil technical analysis, brent oil inflation

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD

EURJPY Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart January 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 2)

eurjpy price forecast, eurjpy technical analysis, eurjpy price chart, eurjpy chart, eurjpy price

The bearish breakout from the symmetrical triangle continues to drive EURJPY prices lower. Price has closed below the daily 21-EMA every session since April 23, and the drop to fresh yearly lows at the end of May portends to more weakness at the start of June.

From a momentum basis, there is no reason to be bullish. EURJPY price is below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. Meanwhile, both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics continue to trend lower in bearish territory; the latter of which has sustained an oversold condition, typically a sign of strong bearish momentum. The rising trendline from the 2012 and 2016 swing lows is now in focus near 120.50.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURJPY (May 31, 2019) (Chart 3)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs eurjpy, eurjpy price chart, eurjpy price forecast, eurjpy technical analysis, eurjpy technical forecast

EURJPY: Retail trader data shows 71.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.55 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 25 when EURJPY traded near 125.814; price has moved 3.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.4% lower than yesterday and 2.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 33.8% lower than yesterday and 27.4% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.