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Top 5 Events: March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast

Top 5 Events: March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast

2019-04-19 19:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- The preliminary March US Durable Goods Orders report is due on Thursday, April 25 at 12:30 GMT.

- Q1’19 US GDP expectations have rebounded considerably after reaching as low as 0.2% in the early-March; the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is up to 2.8%.

- Retail traders have started to fade US Dollar gains, although the outlook for USDJPY is mixed.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/25 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Durable Goods Orders (MAR P)

The US economy revolves around consumption trends, given that approximately 70% of GDP is accounted for by the spending habits of businesses and consumers. As such, the Durable Goods Orders reportmake for an important barometer of the US economy. Durable goods are items with lifespans of three-years or longer – from refrigerators and washing machines to cars and airplanes. These items typically require greater capital investment or financing to secure, meaning that traders can use the report as a proxy for business’ and consumers’ financial confidence and health. The preliminary March print is expected to show a gain of 0.6% after the 1.6% drop in February.

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The Durable Goods Orders reportcould help solidify the rebound in US growth expectations seen since early-March. Based on the information received thus far about Q1’19, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at 2.8% after hitting a low of 0.2% in the second week of March. The next update to the Q1’19 forecast will be released after Tuesday’s US economic data.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

USDJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

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Price action in USDJPY has been constructive since breaking the downtrend from the March swing highs. Likewise, USDJPY prices were able to clear out the March 20 bearish outside engulfing bar high at 111.69, suggesting that pressure is building for a more substantive topside move. A near-term resistance band comes into play between 112.14, the March high, and 112.30, the swing lows from November and December 2018.

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDJPY (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)

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USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 34.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.92 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 31 when USDJPY traded near 110.83; price has moved 1.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.8% lower than yesterday and 11.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.7% lower than yesterday and 25.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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