We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • European Opening Calls: From IG #FTSE 7299 -0.20% #DAX 12384 -0.04% #CAC 5621 +0.01% #IBEX 9046 +0.16% #STOXX 3529 +0.03%
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/72SjAaa27X
  • My trading video for today: $Dollar and S&P 500 Strategy for the #FOMC Rate Decision' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/09/19/Dollar-and-SP-500-Steady-After-Fed-Cut-Monetary-Policy-Remains-Top-Concern.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
  • How can you avoid #FOMOintrading with easy seven steps to creating a trading plan? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/y2UvtIRZAG https://t.co/mBzJBviQDO
  • 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL), Actual: 0.2% Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.35%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.89%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SXDGRBOC4e
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FYKlVlhoR3
  • Heads Up: 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8%
  • Heads Up: July Japan All Industry Activity Index due in 15 min: Expected: 0.2% m/m Prior: -0.8% m/m
Top 5 Events: March US Consumer Price Index & USDJPY Price Outlook

Top 5 Events: March US Consumer Price Index & USDJPY Price Outlook

2019-04-10 00:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- The March US Consumer Price Index is due on Wednesday, April 10 at 12:30 GMT.

- The inflation report on Wednesday will only underscore the belief that the Fed is due to keep policy on hold for the foreseeable future.

- Retail traders continue to sell US Dollar rallies versus the British Pound and the Euro.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Consumer Price Index (MAR)

The March US Consumer Price Index report is due to show a rebound in price pressures, in line with the continued rebound in energy prices as well as the improved streak of US economic data (Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1’19 growth estimate is now 2.1%, up from 0.2% in the second week of March). Nevertheless, the readings are due short the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target of +2%.

According to Bloomberg News, headline CPI is expected in at +1.8% from +1.5%, and Core CPI is due in to hold at 2.1% (y/y). The inflation report on Wednesday will only underscore the belief that the Fed is due to keep policy on hold for the foreseeable future; Fed funds futures are pricing in a 39% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in October and a 56% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by December.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

USDJPY Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (December 2017 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

usdjpy price chart, usdjpy price forecast

Despite breaking the downtrend from the March swing highs, USDJPY has made no progress over the past few days. In returning back to former downtrend resistance, USDJPY has failed to climb back through the March 20 bearish outside engulfing bar high at 111.69. A return back to the April low at 110.80 isn't out of the question, and below there, loss could accelerate towards uptrend support after the January Yen flash-crash.

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDJPY (April 9, 2019) (Chart 2)

usdjpy price chart, ig client sentiment index, igcs

Retail trader data shows 41.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.42 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 31 when USDJPY traded near 110.941; price has moved 0.2% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.6% higher than yesterday and 0.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.9% lower than yesterday and 2.8% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.