We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • #DidYouKnow traders generally prefer using candlestick charts for day-trading because they offer an enjoyable visual perception of price. Find out how you can utilize it in your trading strategy here: https://t.co/yFn12QgmxO https://t.co/QyHKRJOhDW
  • En español: ¿Qué trayectoria tomará el tipo de cambio del $EURUSD tras los anuncios de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo y la Reserva Federal? #trading #forex #euro #EURUSD https://t.co/X1nRprTTRU https://t.co/5ZRMRpkro3
  • How can traders avoid #FOMOintrading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/eKVhbAGd4C
  • The $NZD has slumped back toward support at four-year lows as sellers retake control of price action after a punchy but brief corrective recovery. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/72JZNVKUy4 https://t.co/e8ygfe6gGf
  • Part of trading is losing, that’s just a fact that everyone must accept straight away, How can #FOMO create hurdles in the process? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/MwChGXI42z https://t.co/slj8Xr0dxH
  • #USDollar May Rise if US #GDP Data, #TradeWar Risks Spook Markets https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2019/09/21/US-Dollar-May-Rise-if-US-GDP-Data-Trade-War-Risks-Spook-Markets.html
  • Asia #FX markets will be closely watching for developments in the ongoing China-led RCEP trade negotiations against the backdrop of slower global growth and rising protectionism. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/g332JcY549
  • What are trading journals? How can you create one and reduce your #FOMOintrading? Find out: https://t.co/0akgWbyJEw https://t.co/Xyy7rxZHip
  • 💷 $GBP British Pound Weekly Technical Outlook My latest take on Sterling price action as #Brexit risk comes back into scope. Commentary on the charts and implied volatility table included. More via @DailyFX ➡️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/21/gbp-to-usd-price-analysis-british-pound-eyes-rise-in-brexit-risk.html https://t.co/Hd6LAurfqG
  • The Singapore Dollar is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the $SGD and how to trade it from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/SCHhCQhlFV
Top 5 Events: March Fed Meeting Minutes & EURUSD Price Outlook

Top 5 Events: March Fed Meeting Minutes & EURUSD Price Outlook

2019-04-10 06:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- The minutes from the March Fed meeting is due on Wednesday, April 10 at 18:00 GMT.

- The March Fed meeting saw the FOMC eliminate plans to raises rates in 2019, as well as end its balance sheet reduction process sooner than expected.

- Retail traders remain net-long EURUSD, but recent positioning changes suggest that prices may mean that prices reverse higher soon.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 18:00 GMT | USD March FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting hit markets like an earthquake. Between the decision to eliminate the prospect of a 25-bps rate hike in 2019 as well as end the balance sheet reduction process later this year, traders were caught off guard. Citing a weakening economic backdrop in the United States thanks to the US government shutdown, coupled with a challenging global environment weighed down by trade tensions, the Fed took what some may consider a surprisingly dovish stance.

Significant dislodgements across asset classes – currencies, bonds, equities, commodities – led to the most volatile day of price action in all of 2019. Yet no less than 48-hours after the March Fed meeting, the FX markets kicked into reverse and saw all the Fed-induced US Dollar losses unwind.

In the weeks since, US growth expectations have continued to rebound, up from 0.5% annualized on the day of the March Fed meeting to 2.1% on April 5, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1’19 growth tracker (the NY Fed Nowcast is less bull, at 1.5%). As such, the rationale behind the Fed’s latest decisions will come under a microscope this Wednesday; in turn, greater than normal volatility in USD-pairs should be anticpated.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

EURUSD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (December 2017 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

eurusd price chart, eurusd price forecast

EURUSD's turn higher from last week has seen price settle near its daily 21-EMA ahead of the Fed minutes. While both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics remain in bearish territory, they have turned higher, continuing to work off divergences between price and the indicators. Put in context of the DXY Index's bearish evening star candle cluster, there may still be upside in EURUSD yet.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD (April 10, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, eurusd price chart

Retail trader data shows 63.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.74 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 26 when EURUSD traded near 1.12738; price has moved 0.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.6% lower than yesterday and 11.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 35.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.