We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Trader tip: Not making a decision means avoiding #FOMOintrading. @IlyaSpivak https://t.co/PGD0n13D9p
  • Easing trade tensions provide tailwinds for equity markets. Get your update form @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/79q553DJNa
  • Here's a link to my technical outlook for the Dollar this week: 'US Dollar Facing Measured Breakout and In Its Long Grind Higher' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/22/US-Dollar-Facing-Measured-Breakout-and-In-Its-Long-Grind-Higher.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @business: A senior official from the Bank for International Settlements has added his voice to those calling on governments to back up…
  • RT @JimPethokoukis: “The recent rise in trade policy uncertainty is extraordinary by several metrics ... much evidence points to negative e…
  • Traders should know how to confidently approach, enter and exit both Bull or Bear markets. Need some insight into it? Get it from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/GhvvFrB3gz https://t.co/JxyCkhOHSS
  • What is the biggest obstacle a trader needs to overcome to be successful? Find out from @JWagnerFXTrader here: https://t.co/7nWHSApUzS #FOMOintrading https://t.co/vXfEWo58RY
  • OECD warns of recession, central banks unleash, and the $USD builds breakout pressure. Get your update from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/UKg6wfl8PB
  • What are the 6 common mistakes traders make? Is #FOMO a common mistake? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/B7hOpGEHMp #FOMOintrading https://t.co/WOYk6lOJur
  • All currencies are not the same; emerging market #FX trades differently than developed market FX. Find out how these currencies differ, from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/BH8oal18sz https://t.co/IvomjZw0Bc
Top 5 Events: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook

Top 5 Events: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook

2019-04-05 10:55:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- The March US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

- Markets are expecting the weak February print of 20K to be a one-off; consensus calls for 170K.

- Retail traders are selling the US Dollar, despite significant gains over the past week-plus.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/05 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (MAR)

The main issue for the US Dollar when it comes to the March US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market rebounded after the US government shutdown. After all, the February reading was a meager 20K. But with the unemployment rate still near cycle lows at 3.8%, there is still evidence that the labor market remains tight by the FOMC’s standards. Market participants are expecting that March reading will show a strong rebound, given that jobless claims remain low. Accordingly, current expectations for the data are calling for the unemployment rate to hold at 3.8%, and for the headline jobs figure to come in at +170K.

us nfp, us nfps, us wage growth

According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the economy only needs +111K jobs growth per month over the next 12-months to sustain said unemployment rate at its current 3.8% level.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold

EURUSD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (June 2018 to April 2019)

eurusd price chart, us nfp, us nfps

EURUSD has been on a losing streak since the Fed’s March meeting, falling all but one day since March 20. Momentum is firmly to the downside right now, with price squarely below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope in sequential order. Likewise, daily MACD and Slow Stochastics are trending lower, with the former having crossed below its signal line last week; the latter is nearing a sell signal. A test of the yearly low at 1.1176 is not out of the question this week (nor would be a break to fresh yearly lows).

Read more: Top 5 Events: March ECB Meeting Minutes & EURJPY Price Outlook

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.