News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike asked central government to declare state of emergency -BBG
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/EXYkozlj21
  • 🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (17/APR) Actual: ¥906.5B Previous: ¥1715.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-21
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (17/APR) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: ¥1714.4B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-21
  • Fitch Ratings: Australia-China Trade risks are mitigated by co-dependencies -BBG
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/Ul5GRGiYXb
  • Australia nixes two Belt and Road related deals with China - Reuters
  • A good proxy for risk-on sentiment, AUD/JPY has pushed higher during trade. Of note, the pair bounced off the 50d SMA $AUDJPY https://t.co/r8KS1aoL23
  • If you missed today's webinar here is the recording alongside my silver price outlook - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/21/Silver-Price-Forecast-XAGUSD-Ponders-Breakout-Alongside-Gold-Gains.html
  • SEC said to examine fund disclosure after Archegos blowup - BBG
FX Week Ahead: Australian CPI, ECB Rate Decision, US GDP

FX Week Ahead: Australian CPI, ECB Rate Decision, US GDP

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The coming week sees significantly fewer 'high'' rated events on the calendar than last week, with only three data releases and one central bank rate decisions worth paying attention to.

- The ECB rate decision this week has a very low bar set for expectations, given that policy was preset until at least "summer 2019" at the policy meeting last month.

- The Q2'18 US GDP report is likely to show growth above +4%, offering a chance for rate expectations to recover at the end of the week.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

07/25 Monday | 01:30 GMT | AUD Consumer Prices Index (2Q)

Inflation in Australia is expected to return back into the lower part of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s +2-3% target range for the first time since Q1’17. Due in at +2.2% from +1.9% (y/y), the Q2’18 quarterly inflation report represents a potential turning point for the beleaguered Australian Dollar. With the labor market now showing improvement, signs that inflation is stabilizing should prevent rate expectations from deteriorating any further. Currently, rates markets are pricing in a 9% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by December 2018. It will take several successive inflation reports above +2% in order to get the needle moving on RBA rate expectations again.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD

07/26 Wednesday | 11:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

The big ticket item for the week is the European Central Bank meeting, but traders may want to start lowering expectations here. The primary reason to expect little to result from this meeting is the fact that the July meeting is one without new Staff Economic Projections; like the Federal Reserve (with its Summary of Economic Projections) or the Bank of England (with its Quarterly Inflation Report), the ECB has a multi-year track record of only making significant policy shifts at meetings when it has new economic forecasts in hand.

Moreover, and less of a generalization about ECB policymaking habits, at the previous meeting in June, the Governing Council effectively preset policy on a course through next June when President Draghi announced the schedule for winding down QE through the end of 2018 and pledged to wait on rate normalization until “summer 2019.” With trade tensions running high and whiffs of a currency war in the air, it seems highly unlikely that Draghi will comment with the intent to move the Euro exchange rate.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

07/27 Friday | 12:30 GMT | USD Gross Domestic Product (2Q A)

Growth expectations for Q2’18 US GDP are strong, no matter where you look. The New York Fed’s Nowcasting report sees growth coming in at +2.7% while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate sees growth due in at an astounding +4.5%. According to Bloomberg News, the consensus forecast calls for headline growth due in at +4.3%. Even as rate expectations have slipped slightly since US President Trump’s critiques of Fed policy last week, growth above +4% would be difficult to ignore and all but solidify a 25-bps rate hike in September. As such, we’re looking for the data at the end of the week to help stabilize the US Dollar.

Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

Read more: Euro Forecast: Euro Unlikely to Find a Lifeline in ECB This Week

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES