News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
FX Markets Eye ECB and BOJ Meetings, Q1'18 UK and US GDP

FX Markets Eye ECB and BOJ Meetings, Q1'18 UK and US GDP

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The top event of the week is on Thursday when the ECB meets for its April policy meeting.

- Friday sees a BOJ meeting as well as both of the initial Q1'18 UK and US GDP releases.-

Retail trader positioning has little consistency in bias across USD-pairs.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/24 Tuesday | 01:30 GMT | AUD Consumer Price Index (1Q)

First quarter inflation figures for Australia are expected to see a modest rebound higher this week, from +1.9% to +2.0% (y/y). But given the predominant stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia at present time – one of patience and desire to see further improvement in growth conditions – it would appear unlikely that the inflation print will lead to a significant rebound higher by the Australian Dollar. Presently, Australian cash rate futures are pointing to only a 26% chance of a rate hike by the RBA’s December meeting. The bigger risk to the Australian Dollar this week, and indeed the Australian economy overall per commentary made by RBA Governor Lowe, would be a continued push higher by US interest rates.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/USD

04/26Thursday | 11:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

Even though the European Central Bank policy decision on Thursday will not bring forward a new set of Staff Economic Projections, odds remain high that ECB President Mario Draghi will use his platform to outline a more dovish tone moving forward. Part of the reason for disappointment in some of the data and inflation expectations in recent weeks can be attributed directly to the Euro itself: it remains up by more than +9% year-over-year on a trade-weighted basis. The stronger the Euro is relative to its peers, the less appealing Eurozone exports appear, plain and simple.

Accordingly, despite no new projections being set forth, we expect that Draghi & co. will outline a more dovish set of expectations moving forward via the press conference held following the rate decision itself – a rate decision that will see no change in rates. In fact, looking at overnight index swaps, there is a 25% chance of a rate move by the end of 2018, but rates markets aren’t pricing in a policy change in earnest until at least Q3’19.

A small shift in language by the ECB could undermine the Euro as market participants remain net-long. According to the CFTC’s COT report for the week ended April 17, there were +146.4K net-long contracts held by speculators, up from +133K the week prior. Net-longs are near their highest level ever set during the week ended January 30 at +148.7K contracts. At this juncture, it will be much easier for the ECB to do something that pushes the Euro down than it will be for the Euro to stay elevated.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

04/27Friday | --:-- GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan may walk back some of the relatively hawkish commentary made since the end of March following the release of the March inflation report last week. The National Consumer Price Index came in at +1.1% from +1.5% in March, highlighting the extent to which the BOJ needs to continue to keep its foot on the pedal for its easing program. Any such discussion by BOJ Governor Kuroda that remains centered on pulling back the central bank’s extraordinary easing efforts around the start of fiscal year 2019 (next April) would be seen as hawkish in light of recent data.


04/27Friday | 08:30 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (1Q A)

The British Pound enters this week reeling following commentary made by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney last week. The BOE chief noted that recent economic data has been uneven, prompting speculation that a 25-bps rate hike in May is not a sure thing after all. BOE May rate hike odds have dropped from near 85% to below 50% in the three days following his remarks. Certainly, the upcoming GDP report may not inspire the confidence needed to reinvigorate expectations: the initial Q1’18 GDP release is expected to show growth of +1.4% annualized, just as it did in Q4’17. Although due to be released at the end of the week, the report will be the determining factor for whether or not the British Pound finishes positive or negative this week.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

04/27Friday | 12:30 GMT | USD Gross Domestic Product (1Q A)

Growth expectations for Q1’18 US GDP are fairly divergent, depending upon where you look. The New York Fed’s Nowcasting report sees growth coming in at +2.9% while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate sees growth due in at +2.0%. The source of the divergence is discernible, however: the NY Fed model includes ‘soft data’ like consumer confidence while the Atlanta Fed model does not. Needless to say, with sentiment readings near multi-year highs, there’s an obvious reason why the NY Fed’s estimate is higher than the Atlanta Fed’s. As such, we’re partial to think the Q1’18 GDP reading is going to land closer to +2.0%. Such a reading may prove problematic for the Federal Reserve, given that the March CPI report showed inflation at +2.4% (y/y): stagflation-like conditions are starting to emerge as real GDP growth is set to turn negative.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold

Read more: Euro May be Pressured with ECB Meeting in Focus


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.