We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is #forex risk management? As a trader why is it important to know the basics of it? https://t.co/M9R46rmPUK #tradingstyle https://t.co/C34oD6U8in
  • EUR/GBP has plummeted to a 19-month low while GBP/CAD and GBP/USD are re-testing critical resistance channels. $GBPAUD has reached a three-year high but will upside momentum last? Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/TqzxCRSnjN https://t.co/voYGKUwE8g
  • RT @ReformedBroker: “The digital yuan China is planning is in fact a complete inversion of the bitcoin model. All of the data created would…
  • The $CAD rose on a hopeful tone from the Bank of Canada, but the largest risk to the central bank’s outlook remains unresolved. NZD/CAD has rallied. Will AUD/CAD follow as CAD/JPY sinks? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/AairskIHA5 https://t.co/f53ZzloW4u
  • The latest UK General Election opinion polls continue to show the Conservative Party holding a strong lead over Labour and point to Boris Johnson winning a working majority in Parliament. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qF04EOUWkI https://t.co/LNl4bXbnpp
  • Recent polls have put Conservatives ahead of Labour and given a boost to $GBP. Get your #Brexit update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/l2n53C0cYY https://t.co/oTWfXkaDDt
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/xeromAGqqx
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/rCOG78QQ2M
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/JmZxckVHdS
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
Busy Week Ahead for FX Markets with RBA, ECB, and US NFPs Due

Busy Week Ahead for FX Markets with RBA, ECB, and US NFPs Due

Share:

Talking Points:

- RBA decision on Tuesday likely to be the first of many this year for the RBA that result in no policy changes.

- ECB meeting on Thursday, despite coming with new staff economic projections, is not likely to bring about any changes as the ECB’s taper is in sight.

- US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday are the ‘cherry’ on top of the Fed’s March rate hike.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

03/07 Tuesday | 03:30 GMT | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

Slipping below 0.76 cents versus the US Dollar on Friday, the Australian Dollar has weakened ahead of the Reserve Bank’s March 3 rate decision. The move does not likely reflect market expectations: there is a 0% chance of a rate cut on Tuesday, and only a 0.7% chance of a rate hike, according to overnight index swaps. Put simply, a bevy of mixed inflation, growth, trade, and employment data will likely keep the RBA sidelined for the better part of, if not all of, 2017: by December, there is still less than a 1-in-3 chance of a rate move, according to rates markets.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/USD

03/09 Thursday | 01:30 GMT | CNY Consumer Price Index (FEB)

Chinese consumer prices rose by +2.5% (year-on-year) in January, the fastest rate since May 2014. The print also beat expectations of a +2.4% rise and December’s reading of +2.1%. January’s boost was driven by a +2.7% rise in foods while non-food prices rose by +2.5%. While January’s uptick in inflation looks strong, the official Chinese statistics agency noted that prices were probably boosted by a boost in output ahead of the two-week Lunar New Year holiday. As such, market watchers are looking for a decline in headline inflation in February, with the headline reading due in at +1.8%, which would represent a dramatic stepdown.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, USD/CNH

03/09 Thursday | 12:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

While the European Central Bank will be releasing new staff economic projections (SEPs) due on Thursday, the scope for the ECB to act at this meeting, one way or the other, seems very limited. To be fair, economic data has been improving steadily in recent weeks, beyond consensus expectations by a wide margin. The Euro-Zone Citi Economic Surprise Index finished last week at +70.0, up from +55.9 a month earlier. On the other hand, despite the German and Euro-Zone CPIs running through +2%, the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, one of President Draghi’s favorite measures of inflation, have slipped back the past month, finishing at 1.705% at the end of last week from 1.774% four-weeks ago.

ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to balance out his optimism over near-term economic data against longer-term concerns about the political scene in Europe and inflation that has just started to show signs of life near their medium-term target. Similarly, it seems likely that he’ll downplay the ECB’s faith that inflation is returning in a meaningful way, so as to not spook markets into thinking that the ECB will be withdrawing liquidity at a faster than expected pace; the ECB’s ‘taper’ will still amount to over half-a-trillion worth of European sovereign debt purchased through the end of the year.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

03/10 Friday | 12:30 GMT | CAD Net Change in Employment, Unemployment Rate (FEB)

Unemployment in Canada remains stubbornly high despite decreasing by -0.5% over the last year to 6.8% in January. Employment rose by just over 48,000 in January, beating expectations of a 5,000 fall, with nearly all of the increase due to extra jobs in the service sector. Employment increased in Ontario, British Columbia, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, while fewer people worked in New Brunswick. The labor outlook may be helped this month after recent data showed Canadian 4Q December GDP (year-on-year) rose to +2.0%, beating expectations of +1.7% growth and November’s print of +1.9%. The labor market report is unlikely to yield anything substantive that will provoke the Bank of Canada to shift its course.

Pairs to Watch: CAD/JPY, USD/CAD

03/10 Friday | 12:30 GMT | USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (FEB)

The key issue surrounding the February US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market will give one further indication that it is strong enough to justify a more aggressive pace of Fed tightening. Current expectations for the data are modest, with the Unemployment Rate expected to hold at 4.9%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +175K.

The trend of +200K jobs growth per month has recently been a psychological level for markets, but Fed leaders and centrists (the Goldilocks of the Fed; not too hawkish or too dovish) tend have another number in mind. In October 2015, San Fran Fed President John Williams wrote in a research note that he believed growth of +100K jobs per month was enough to sustain the growth in the labor force and maintain the current unemployment rate. In December 2015, Chair Janet Yellen reiterated this same view. And, just last week, she noted that the economy can maintain its current unemployment rate by producing between 75K and 125K jobs per month. By the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, assuming a 4.9% longer term unemployment rate, the economy only needs +108K job growth per month to sustain that level through the end of 2017.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY

Read more: Webinar: FX Week Ahead w/ Sr. Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist, Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

Don’t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.