News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/nHXiNJhLes
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/h0TmJcZeqr
  • $USDCAD sold off aggressively last week, putting it into position to test the important 2017 low; trading bias is neutral to bearish. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/sphxUAW9TB https://t.co/ZhsTeJOOM8
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/qP96xmgDVn
  • The pro-risk Australian Dollar may extend gains after the record miss in US jobs data, amplifying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and keeping the Dow Jones and S&P 500 intact. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/yf8mPX3O3W https://t.co/uCCmjaxUhF
  • Who else is keeping close tabs on Dogecoin $DOGE this weekend? All eyes on Elon Musk @elonmusk, the proverbial 'Dogefather,' and his Saturday Night Live @nbcsnl performance kicking off at 11:30PM ET. The #crypto is already looking nice and perky following that trendline break! https://t.co/nrQsnlUqWj https://t.co/4lOz6NLQTG
  • There is some very interesting event risk over the opening half of this coming week of trade. It starts with Elon Musk hosting SNL tonight for Dogecoin traders and moves into US inflation data to as means to stir the ongoing Fed debate and Dollar https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/LXhjv7ToWC
  • It was a big week for Gold bulls and Gold prices broke out to fresh two-month-highs, finally taking-out the 1800 level along the way. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/D222Ni37Dv https://t.co/KcMYyx3Ro4
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/PjywaPeUsl
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/AjOSPzOFLb
Beginning of December Brings Central Bank Cheer: RBA, ECB, and NFPs

Beginning of December Brings Central Bank Cheer: RBA, ECB, and NFPs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Central bank-centric calendar first week of December.

- Global PMI week as well – uptrend looks to continue.

- Despite no meeting, Fed remains omnipresent with NFPs on Friday.

December tends to be a lower month in volatility overall, although the past few years haven’t been exactly calm during the 4Q (2008: US financial crisis; 2010: beginning of QE2; 2011: Euro-Zone debt crisis; 2012: US fiscal cliff).

Nevertheless, we envision that organic risk appetite (predicated on economic growth) as well as stimulus speculation (will central banks work to keep interest rates pinned down) will guide FX trends amid a flurry of central bank activity and economic data that directly impacts central bank activity.

In terms of direct interaction with the central banks, we are looking at four rate decisions: RBA (Tuesday), BoC (Wednesday), BoE (Thursday), and ECB (Thursday). The most important and market-moving events are those for the RBA and the ECB. Notably, the latter surprised the market by cutting its benchmark unexpectedly at the last meeting and there is talk amongst policymakers and speculators that a stimulus program could follow – whose impact on the Euro largely depends on the form the stimulus takes.

The Fed’s QE3 program, however, still holds the mantle of most influential stimulus program – enough so that it has fundamentally altered investment habits. The true litmus test for stimulus watchers and trend mavens though is the November NFPs. This indicator is a known market mover and its influence on the QE3 taper time table is well-known.

Rate Hike Probabilities / Basis-Points Expectations

Beginning_of_December_Brings_Central_Bank_Cheer_RBA_ECB_and_NFPs_body_Picture_1.png, Beginning of December Brings Central Bank Cheer: RBA, ECB, and NFPsBeginning_of_December_Brings_Central_Bank_Cheer_RBA_ECB_and_NFPs_body_Chart_1.png, Beginning of December Brings Central Bank Cheer: RBA, ECB, and NFPs

See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. See all of this week’s “high” importance events.

12/03 Tuesday // 03:30 GMT: AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

As was the case at the November meeting, the RBA is expected to keep its main rate on hold at 2.50%. The central bank’s brief policy statement last month stated that inflation remained consistent with medium-term targets and that a lower Australian Dollar would likely be needed to achieve balanced growth (a dovish tilt).

With the AUDUSD down approximately –4% since the prior meeting, market participants will be looking for statements on the recent price action. The central bank has said before that measures could be taken to weaken the currency. Failure to embolden the dovish rhetoric amid a rate hold could pave the way for a short covering rally (speculative positioning remains negative, per the most recent CFTC’s COT report).

Survey: 2.50% (hold)

Prior: 2.50% (hold)

The key pairs to watch are AUDNZD and AUDUSD.

12/04 Wednesday // 00:30 GMT: AUD Gross Domestic Product (3Q)

Following the RBA, surveys point to a one-tenth of a percent reduction in Australian growth in the 3Q’13. With the Australian Dollar having gone through a multi-week decline, a better than expected print here combined with a constructive statement out of the RBA may provide much needed support for a near-term pullback in the decline. Nevertheless, uncertainties in China continue to weigh on commodity bloc currencies, and a miss here could renew calls for a rate cut in early-2014.

Survey: +0.7% (q/q), +2.5% (y/y)

Prior: +0.6% (q/q), +2.6% (y/y)

The key pairs to watch are AUDNZD and AUDUSD.

12/05 Thursday // 12:45 GMT: EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

Following a rate cut of 25-bps last month, the ECB is expected to hold its interest rate path steady, although the ECB has said before that rates could be cut further if the disinflation situation accelerates. The real volatility will come from Mr. Draghi’s press conference at 13:30GMT, where he could outline the steps for new near-direct liquidity injections into the economy. A FLS-like (of the Bank of England) LTRO might not lead to a decline in the Euro.

Read more on this week’s European Central Bank Rate Decision.

Survey: 0.25% (hold); liquidity scheme for SMEs.

Prior: 0.25% (25-bps cut).

The key pairs to watch are EURGBP and EURUSD.

12/05 Thursday // 13:30 GMT: USD Gross Domestic Product (3Q S) (Annualized)

This will be the last GDP print before the Federal Reserve meets for its December meeting. The reading, combined with Friday’s NFPs, will certainly set the tone in regards to speculation of a December taper. It is important to note that the impact of the government shutdown will not be registered in this third quarter print. If the print meets expectations, it will be the best print since the spring of 2012.

Survey: +3.1% (y/y)

Prior: +2.8% (y/y)

The key pairs to watch are EURUSD and USDJPY.

12/06 Thursday // 13:30 GMT: USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (NOV)

The busy week of event risk will culminate with one of the most critical: the headline US labor market report. Although current estimates predict March as the month for the Federal Reserve’s reduction in asset purchases, a strong NFP print here may stir speculation of a December taper and thus support the greenback henceforth.

The Unemployment Rate is also estimated to tic down a tenth of a percent from 7.3% to 7.2%. A further deterioration in the Participation Rate could dampen enthusiasm over any positive data. (We suggest watching the Employment subcomponents of the ISM surveys this week,)

Survey: +180K

Prior: +204K

The key pairs to watch are EURUSD and USDJPY.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst and Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES