News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is seasonal change in volatility. Are we going through one right now? Find out: https://t.co/G0qfpOmMl2 https://t.co/HXCQzUQgxA
  • The US Dollar will be bracing for a cascade of political risks including the first presidential debate, ongoing stimulus talks, the Supreme Court vacancy against the backdrop of key employment data. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/quU4MmUjxA https://t.co/jF6ubwRz1P
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/PfIVibmqn1
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/lKvEMf4QRe
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/GGVrB3r7if https://t.co/HPHUC8EG3o
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/q80wSAoxXP
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/7mc19Gxrvm
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/09/26/Gold-Price-Outlook-Rising-US-Dollar-Sinks-XAUUSD-Will-Losses-Extend.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gPhy0KoW3W
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDnpPbn https://t.co/Xtk5g4JQEB
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/SsUguHB39W
Big Week as Risk Trends Settle - RBA, ECB, BoE, and US NFPs On Deck

Big Week as Risk Trends Settle - RBA, ECB, BoE, and US NFPs On Deck

2013-07-01 09:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Kevin Jin,
Share:

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) gained +0.79% last week, making its two-week total +3.42%, its best two-week performance since the weeks ending May 10 and May 17 of this year. Needless to say, the world’s reserve currency has seen continued demand following the Federal Reserve’s June 19 policy meeting, with bouts of strength arriving in tandem with surges in US Treasury yields.

For the week ahead, as this theme plays out, there are several ‘high’ ticket events on the economic calendar that are all but guaranteed to produce excess volatility. Of note, there are three major central bank meetings this week, while the first week of the July (as do all first weeks of the month) presents PMI readings from across the globe. But in terms of the Fed – the most important focus right now – the June US labor market release on Friday, despite holiday trading conditions in the US, is the biggest event on the docket.

Rate Hike Probabilities / Basis-Points Expectations

Big_Week_as_Risk_Trends_Settle_RBA_ECB_BoE_and_US_NFPs_On_Deck_body_Picture_1.png, Big Week as Risk Trends Settle - RBA, ECB, BoE, and US NFPs On Deck

See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators.

07/01 Monday // 14:00 GMT: USD ISM Manufacturing (JUN)

US ISM Manufacturing data as of late has been worrying – prints have been declining every month since February signaling slowed growth (and contraction in May (below 50.0) for the first time since November 2012). Despite the apparent slowdown in manufacturing, it is important to remember that the rest of the US economy is showing signs of continued improvement. Of note, consumption, the greatest slice of GDP (just short of 70%), has retained an upward bias in recent months. Given the recent declining trend, a beat on the headline could prove to be significantly bullish for the USD.

CONSENSUS: 50.5

PRIOR: 49.0

The key pairs to watch are EURUSD and USDJPY.

07/02 Tuesday // 04:30 GMT: AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

Although the key rate was on hold in June, in May, the RBA cut the benchmark rate to a record low 2.75%, a reminder that the rate cut cycle is still very much in the picture. In the June Minutes, the RBA stated, “the exchange rate [has] also depreciated noticeably, though it [remains] at a high level considering the decline in export prices that [have] taken place over the past year and a half.” While we find another rate cut unlikely at present, further dovish guidance is expected, which could weigh further on the AUD, which fell by -4.69% over the past month against the USD through Friday’s close

CONSENSUS: 2.75%

PRIOR: 2.75%

The key pairs to watch are AUDUSD and AUDNZD.

07/04 Thursday // 11:00 GMT: GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

The BoE policy meeting on Thursday will be the first in the post-Mervyn King era, with former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney taking the reins. It has been long believed that Governor Carney’s ascension would be a consistent bearish influence on the Sterling, given the fact that from December 2012 through February 2013, on several occasions he suggested that central bank policy hadn’t reached its limit and that additional accommodative policies might warrant a consideration.

With that said, despite the 1Q’13 UK GDP figure missing, Governor Carney is unlikely to implement any material or noteworthy policies at his first meeting this Thursday. As expectations for Governor Carney’s stewardship of the BoE are overall dovish, it is possible that a hold might lead to a brief burst higher for the GBP-based pairs.

CONSENSUS: 0.50%; APT at £375B

PRIOR: 0.50%; APT at £375B

The key pairs to watch are EURGBP and GBPUSD.

07/04 Thursday // 11:45 GMT: EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

The ECB will decide on Thursday whether to cut its benchmark interest rate even further, past the already record low 0.50%. ECB policymakers have stated hesitance towards cutting this rate and have instead considered implementing a negative deposit rate. In essence, this would charge banks for depositing excess reserves at the ECB which should in turn encourage lending. Theoretically, implementing a negative deposit rate would be bearish for the EUR because it an expansion of money supply causes a currency to devalue. This move, however, is unlikely at the meeting.

CONSENSUS: 0.50%

PRIOR: 0.50%

The key pairs to watch are EURJPY and EURUSD.

07/05 Friday // 12:30 GMT: USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (JUN)

June US labor market data on Friday will give the best insight into when QE tapering mightbegin, as the Fed has continuously reiterated the data contingency of its policies. The Fed has been looking for NFP figures around +200K for several consecutive months to kick start the taper, although such a trend hasn’t materialized; since the +332K reading in February, there has not been a single print above +200K. While the June report should show continued modest growth, given the shift in Fed policy leanings towards the belief that the labor market is improving, another NFP figure in the +160K to +180K should be sufficient to spur a stronger USD.

CONSENSUS: +165K; 7.6%

PRIOR: +175K; 7.6%

The key pairs to watch are EURUSD and USDJPY.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst and Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES