U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report Headlines Week of Event Risk
• U.S. Consumer Confidence (MAR) – March 30, 14:00 GMT
Americans are becoming more optimistic as the economy improves which is expected to be reflected in the upcoming Conference Board index. Forecasts are for a rise to 50.0 from 46.0 which would leave sentiment lower than the January reading of 56.50. The University of Michigan Survey confidence survey for the same period improved to 73.6 from 72.5 which supports the forecast for improvement. Rising optimism often translates into consumer demand which has implications for future growth and inflation, both which could accelerate the time frame for a Fed rate hike. Therefore, we could see bullish dollar sentiment following an inline or better print.
• German Unemployment Change (MAR) – March 31, 07:55 GMT
The German labor markets has started to show signs of weakness as the number of unemployed rose the past two months following six straight months of declines. Economists are expecting that Europe’s largest economy added another 7,000 to the number of out of work Germans. The OECD is forecasting that the unemployment rate will remain at the current 8.2% for the remainder of the year. Therefore, job losses for a few thousand for the 40 million string labor force may not raise concerns. However, a third straight month of declines is a trend that will grab investors’ attention. Considering the debt troubles in the region any weakness from the main engine of growth could weigh in the single currency which has been battered over the past week.
• Canadian GDP (JAN)– March 31–12:30 GMT
The Canadian economy continues to show signs of growth with consecutive months of job growth and a 0.7% improvement in retail sales in January. Therefore, it isn’t a surprise that economist are forecasting that GDP accelerated by 0.5% in the first month of the year. The fourth quarter of 22009 saw the commodity driven economy grow by 5.0% propelled by demand from emerging markets. China and India are starting to take steps to cool their domestic economies but a slow down, is still in the distance. A faster pace of Canadian growth will fuel interest rate expectations which are already on the rise. The BoC has pledged to remain on hold until at least June, but with core inflation already above the target level of 2.0%, they could look to become aggressive and hike rates sooner.
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing (MAR) – April 1- 14:00 GMT
A boost in manufacturing was the key to the 5.6% increase in 4Q U.S. GDP which makes the upcoming March reading an important gauge. The increase in activity has been driven by demand from abroad and the replenishing of depleted inventories. The lack of consumer spending has dimmed expectations for future activity which were validated with February’s decline to 56.5 from 58.4. Forecasts are for a slight pickup in March to 57.0 which isn’t enough to alter the current outlook. Nevertheless, another month of expansion (a reading over 50) is a sign that the recovery is sustaining which could be bullish for the dollar.
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR) April 2– March 19, 12:30 GMT
The U.S. labor report is typically one of the most market moving events, which has grown in importance with the Fed expected to remain on hold until unemployment declines. Economists are forecasting that non-farm payrolls increased by 190,000 in March which would be the most since March, 2007. The past three months have seen the economy lose jobs following the unexpected increase last November. Many had expected that stimulus efforts would have generated positive net employment sooner. A strong result will fuel expectations that a positive trend is emerging which will shorten the horizon for tightening from the FOMC and could generate significant dollar support.
See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators.
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