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Dow Jones Industrial Average Poised for Small Rally Towards 17,875

Dow Jones Industrial Average Poised for Small Rally Towards 17,875

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

Talking Points

-Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell towards our first support zone of 17,600

-Sentiment at -3.1 is shifting towards bulls which suggests more potential for losses

-Considering shorting a rally near 17,875 back towards 17,300

Last week, we wrote about how Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reaching the 18,000 mark placed it at a short term crossroads. At that point, we didn’t know if prices would accelerate higher or provide a shakeout lower prior to a new drive higher.

Well, since last week, DJIA has fallen dropping into the first support zone cited near 17,600.

If DJIA does break below 17,880, then look for potential support near 17,600 or possibly a retest towards 17,300.Dow Jones Industrial Average Rally Sputters at 18,000

Where do we go from here? Well, Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) is increasing which suggests there is further room to fall. Within the past 24 hours, SSI has increased from -4.5 to -3.1. Long positions have increased 26% higher from yesterday and short positions have decreased 11% from yesterday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Poised for Small Rally Towards 17,875

The technical picture for US30, a CFD which tracks the DJIA, does have an option that runs up to about 17,875-17,900. Since SSI is shifting higher, day traders can look to this price zone as a possible area to short and retest 17,300.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Poised for Small Rally Towards 17,875

From a medium term and longer term perspective, we are anticipating eventual new highs on a wave that starts from lower levels and possibly near 17,300.

However, next week, United Kingdom places their EU referendum vote on whether they will stay or leave EU. The recent terror attacks is giving the leave vote a greater momentum. If UK votes to leave, it could spark an equities sell off as it creates an uncertainty on economic progress. So keep your eyes on that vote as a potential wild card.

Suggested Reading:

Global Stocks Continue to Fall Before FOMC

S&P 500: Fear Rising, Breadth Sinking

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.