News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/m920Uvmngm https://t.co/yQYtfHf66s
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/Dqq9S9vGvo
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/lccPTTlvj0
  • GBP/USD’s consolidation could end soon if price breaks out of a symmetrical triangle in play since July. At this time, a downside breakout is likely following the appearance of a death cross. Get your weekly $GBP forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/WIKdSesfkJ https://t.co/Fx0qr32xgI
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/IRS9MaA7h8
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/CHF/2021/09/18/Gold-Price-Outlook-Hinges-on-Fed-Rate-Decision-Forward-Guidance.html https://t.co/dWWxtErjK0
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/4qxwiJsV1K
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/stMPuq0VXR
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/v6RGICQvge
The Trend of the Day - USD/CHF

The Trend of the Day - USD/CHF

Gregory McLeod, Currency Analyst


Short term Swissy Rally Could Lead to Bigger Drop

The greatly awaited NFP unemployment report has come and gone revealing that the U.S. has shed 190,000 jobs from the economy.
Initially, USD/CHF rallied from the 1.0125 lows to a high of 1.0201 at the time of this writing. The worse than expected number has signaled to traders that the U.S. economy is far from a recovery as the unemployment number tops 10% for the first time.

All of this seems to tell traders that they should move from risky assets and move into the U.S. dollar to find the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The interest earned is extremely low, however the principle is guaranteed.
It would also seem that the USD/CHF would benefit from such risk averse news. This had been the story but the markets are funny. When you've think you have figured out a neat correlation or reason for the currencies to move a certain way, the markets do just the opposite.

Head Fake or or Trend Reversal?

The USD/CHF should get a short term pop up to the 1.0259 area because price could not break below the low at 1.0118. In fact, it looks like a triple bottom as sellers are taking profits form the run down from the 1.0346 November 3rd high. Look for USD/CHF to find signficant resistance
in the 1.0205 to 1.0300 zone. This is where Fibonacci resistance levels are located; 1.0205-38% , 1.0232-50%, 1.0259-61.8%.

According to the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index, retail clients are long USD/CHF by a margin of 3:1. This is an extremely bearish reading as SSI is a contrarian indicator. This means when the crowd gets long, it is time to short. When the crowd is short, it is time to buy.

I am looking at entering short at 1.0250 with a 100 pip stop at the 1.0350 level. I would set a Limit at the 1.0032 level which is the 100% retracement of the whole run-up from October 23 to November 3rd.

usdchf 11.06.2009

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES