The AUD/USD Hits New Weekly Lows After US Data
- The AUD/USD Trends Downward after US Advanced Retail Sales Figures
- Bearish Momentum is Set to Continue at .7354
- Bullish Distributions Begin at .7371, Signaling a Potential Reversal in Price
The AUD/USD has traded to new weekly lows as US Advanced Retail Sales beat expectations this morning. Estimates were set at 0.3%, but released at 0.5%. This news has caused the US Dollar to appreciate against most of the majors including the Aussie Dollar. Traders tracking the AUD/USD should note that the pair continues to trade beneath the 30min 200 period MVA. This suggests that the current trend is down, and allow traders an opportunity to move into shorter time frames to identify fresh bearish momentum for the pair.
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AUD/USD 30 Minute Chart with 200 MVA
(Created using Grid Sight Index)
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Displayed in the graph below, we can now see the AUD/USD turning off of its most recent swing high at.7382. This short-term downtrend has been temporarily stalled as prices have created a series of higher highs, which have been identified with a blue line on the chart below. However, despite this retracement, the Grid Sight Index has reviewed 37,771,321 matching pricing points and identified that prices have declined a minimum of of 18 pips in 54% of the 218 matching events. If prices reach this first bearish distribution point, it opens the AUD/USD to test lower levels. This includes the next bearish distribution point found at .7346.
Traders watching for an AUD/USD reversal should watch for a move towards .7395. From the 218 matching events identified by GSI, the market advanced 32 pips in only 5% of these instances. Being the smallest distribution from the data set, it suggests a movement to this point. In this scenario, traders should next watch for the final bearish distribution at .7420. A move to this point would represent a 48-pip decline and only occurred in 5% of the 110 matching events.
What is GSI?
Grid Sight Index is a powerful big data indicator that can help you determine whether short-term trends will continue or reverse. GSI takes a snapshot of current price action and uses that to find similar events by studying millions of historical data points. Then it studies those events to show you how often the trend continued or reversed in the past.
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.