We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
What are the Chances that My Trade Will Hit its Profit Target?  Part 1

What are the Chances that My Trade Will Hit its Profit Target? Part 1

2012-03-23 03:00:00
Richard Krivo, Trading Instructor

To insure that I am taking higher probability trades, those that are more likely to hit my profit target, I will look at the amount of room the pair has to move in the direction of my trade. If there are numerous levels of support or resistance the pair has to move through, the less likely the profit target will be hit.

If there is little or no support or resistance in its path, the pair will have a greater probability that the profit target (limit) will be hit.

Let’s take a look at the daily chart of the EURNZD pair below…

What_are_the_Chances_that_My_Trade_Will_Hit_its_Profit_Target_body_eurnzd_3_21.png, What are the Chances that My Trade Will Hit its Profit Target?  Part 1

The pair has been building higher highs and higher lows for about six weeks. It has taken out the initial resistance at 1.6249. Should the EUR continue to strengthen against the NZD the pair has the potential and the “room to move” up for around 600 pips.

Now, this is not to say that the pair will take off like a rocket if bullish momentum continues or even that it will slowly trade up to our limit at roughly 1.6930. It may do neither of those. This chart merely shows a setup that in my mind that has potential…a greater likelihood of success.

On the other hand, let’s take a look at the one hour chart of the USDCHF pair below…

What_are_the_Chances_that_My_Trade_Will_Hit_its_Profit_Target_body_usdchf_3_21.png, What are the Chances that My Trade Will Hit its Profit Target?  Part 1

Notice how this pair has retraced to the downside and is building back to the upside. The entry on this trade would be when price breaks above about .9170…the thick black line just below where it shows “25 pips”. The assumption here would be that with a bullish bias after a retracement, the pair potentially could trade back up to its former high for a gain of around 180 pips.

Contrary to our EURNZD chart however, which showed the pair had “room to move”, this USDCHF pair is confronted with two levels of resistance on the way to its profit target.

So when trying to determine the likelihood of a profit target being hit, be certain to check out the charts with an eye toward how much interference price must go through to achieve its goal. The more interference (resistance levels in an uptrend and support levels in a downtrend), the less likely it becomes that the goal will be achieved.

Remember, as is the case with many aspects of trading, there is no absolute, hard and fast answer to the question of insuring that the profit target will be hit. There are no guarantees.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.