0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/37m2Ij6f2H
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/aG5lue4jZ4
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/K4BUUCDVdB
  • 💶 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q2) Actual: -12.1% Expected: -12.1% Previous: -3.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 💶 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (Q2) Actual: -15% Expected: -15% Previous: -3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 💶 Balance of Trade (JUN) Actual: €21.2B Expected: €12.6B Previous: €9.4B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 💶 GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est (Q2) Actual: -12.1 Expected: -12.1% Previous: -3.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇭🇰 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q2) Actual: -0.1% Expected: -0.1% Previous: -5.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇭🇰 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q2) Actual: -9% Expected: -9% Previous: -9.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 💶 GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est (Q2) Actual: -9% Expected: -15% Previous: -3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
Gold Prices Drop as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise

Gold Prices Drop as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise

2016-08-29 11:56:00
Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education
Share:

Talking Points

-Gold prices test triangle support in the previously cited $1311-1320 zone

-The Fed is trying to invigorate September 21 as a live meeting with a possible rate hike; odds now at 42%

-The higher probability pattern appears to be a triangle which suggests higher prices towards $1375

On August 15, we had written how the $1311-1320 price zone for gold prices would be an area of interest for traders. This is a price zone where if bulls were going to appear, they would need to do so prior to $1311 which corresponds to the July 20 low.

The recent comments by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole meeting did strengthen the Dollar which pushed gold prices lower. Recently, the Fed has been trying to get traders to believe that there is a potential for rate hikes coming so the market doesn’t become complacent. The Fed Fund futures are projecting a 42% chance of a rate hike in the September 21 meeting, which is the highest level in 3 months. What makes this number more interesting is that this meeting is just over 3 weeks away.

This creates a pressure cooker environment for gold prices. At 42%, a ‘no hike’ in September becomes a disappointment for those planning for it and may send gold prices higher. If they do hike in September, then you have 58% who were not expecting it and may need to play catch up which could send the Dollar soaring, which the Fed is not particularly interested in.

Gold Prices Drop as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise

Chart prepared by Jeremy Wagner

From a technical perspective, the $1311-1320 zone is still an area of interest. If this zone holds, look for prices to move higher and retest the highs near $1375 and possibly higher towards $1435.

A break down below $1311 suggests that another pattern is in play and opens the door to $1250 and possibly $1200.

To read our quarterly forecasts for Gold or, download our quarterly forecast here.

See gold trader positioning here.

Why do many traders lose? This could be why.

Suggested Reading: Gold Prices Grind Sideways in a Triangle

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.

To receive additional articles from Jeremy via email, join Jeremy’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.