0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇺🇸 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (JUL) Actual: 1.9% Expected: 1.3% Previous: 7.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • 🇺🇸 Retail Sales MoM (JUL) Actual: 1.2% Expected: 1.9% Previous: 7.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Forex trading, which is the act of exchanging fiat currencies, is thought to be centuries old – dating back to the Babylonian period. Learn about the history of Forex here:https://t.co/ePTJlbUP7c https://t.co/EYiF2sAmCz
  • 🇮🇳 Balance of Trade (JUL) Actual: $-4.83B Expected: $-2B Previous: $0.79B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.3% Previous: 7.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Retail Sales MoM (JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.9% Previous: 7.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Balance of Trade (JUL) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $-2B Previous: $0.79B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-14
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/37m2Ij6f2H
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/aG5lue4jZ4
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/K4BUUCDVdB
EUR/USD Jumps to Trend Line Resistance After Weak Retail Sales

EUR/USD Jumps to Trend Line Resistance After Weak Retail Sales

2016-08-12 16:30:00
Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education
Share:

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD trades to the top of its trend channel near 1.1240
  • Elliott wave counts are mixed with this resistance line being the key level
  • Use SSI with GSI to see how the intraday momentum is shifting near the resistance line

EUR/USD has popped higher on today’s weaker than expected retail sales release. The aftermath of the move resulted in EUR/USD bumping up to 1.1222.

Today’s high came in near an interesting juncture. If we connect a trend line from the May high to the June high, that trend line crosses near 1.1240. Today’s high came close to touching this trend line.

This trend line is an important line from a technical perspective. Zooming out, we have a potential zig zag equal wave pattern from May 3 to June 23. The zigzag is a versatile Elliott wave pattern that shows up in many different places of the Elliott wave sequence. That pattern by itself suggests we may see higher prices on EUR/USD towards 1.14.

EUR/USD Short Term Bullish Break?

EUR/USD Jumps to Trend Line Resistance After Weak Retail Sales

Chart prepared by Jeremy Wagner

However, there is another possibility that is quite bearish. The extremely bearish scenario suggests the market is unfolding a series of 1-2 waves meaning wave iii of 3 is about to begin (see image below). Under this scenario, the trend line connecting the May and June highs is important. If price materially pushes above this trend line, then the extremely bearish scenario moves off the table as a viable option.

If price holds below this trend line, then we need to be aware of an extremely bearish scenario that may unfold.

EUR/USD Extremely Bearish Scenario

EUR/USD Jumps to Trend Line Resistance After Weak Retail Sales

Chart prepared by Jeremy Wagner

A couple of tools we can follow to help us determine if the trend line will hold or not is GSI and SSI.

A trader, therefore, can pull the Grid Sight Index (GSI) out of their tool box to see what the intraday momentum is looking like near this 1.1240 trend line. I would suggest looking at it on the ‘m5’ and ‘m10’ setting.

Learn more about Grid Sight here.

Additionally, look at how sentiment as measured through SSI is responding to that level. Currently, SSI is sporting a -1.69 figure which means there are more traders short than long. If this begins to shift higher, while GSI shows intraday reverals, then you have confirmation that the trend line likely holds over the near term. If SSI shifts lower while GSI intraday momentum looks higher, then the trader can shift to a breakout strategy higher.

See EUR/USD trader positioning here.

Biggest reason EUR/USD traders lose? This could be why.

Interested in a quarterly outlook for EUR or USD? Download our quarterly forecast here.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.

To receive additional articles from Jeremy via email, join Jeremy’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.