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Talking Points:

The EUR/USD has opened this week’s trading just under monthly highs found at 1.0774. Technically this point remains significant as the EUR/USD is again trending higher in the short term. If the pair successfully rallies above this point, traders may then look for a bullish breakout to carry the EUR/USD towards 1.0829 and then 1.0854. A move above 1.0854 would suggest a longer term trend change, as the EUR/USD would be trading back above its 200 day MVA (simple moving average) for the first since October 2016.

However in the event that the EUR/USD turns lower this week, traders should first look for the pair to first challenge its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average) at 1.0700. This line is currently acting as a value of support, and a bearish breakout here would suggest a change in short term momentum for the pair. A broader bearish decline may expose other values of support, which includes the March 14th low at 1.0600 and the March 9th swing low at 1.0525.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart with Averages

EUR/USD Opens Under Monthly Highs

(Created Using IG Charts)

Current retail sentiment data shows that 64% of traders are net-short the EUR/USD, with SSI (speculative sentiment index) reading at -1.81. Typically SSI is read as a contrarian indicator, meaning that the current negative readings suggest that prices may continue to trend rise. If prices breakout higher, it would be expected to see SSI reach negative extremes of -2.0 or more. Alternatively if prices decline in the short term, SSI should be seen retracting back towards more neutral figures.

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EUR/USD Opens Under Monthly Highs

--- Written by Walker, Analyst for

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