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EUR/USD Turns Lower on Lackluster NFP Data

EUR/USD Turns Lower on Lackluster NFP Data

2016-11-04 14:25:00
Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor

Talking Points:

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower despite the release of lackluster NFP figures. Today’s NFP release was expected at +175k, and was released at +161k an actual. The big surprise on the day was a revision of September’s employment figures to 191k. This revision was up from the reported 156K, causing US Dollar based pairs to rally.

Technically, the EUR/USD may be seen below being rejected from a 50% Fibonacci retracement value at 1.1108. This line has been acting as resistance now for three consecutive sessions, and is measured by taking the distance between the August 18th high at 1.1366 and the current October low of 1.0850. If prices continue to trade below this value, traders may see this rejection as the resumption of an ongoing 4th quarter downtrend. However if prices can break above this point, it may solidify a broader EUR/USD retracement.

EUR/USD, Daily

EUR/USD Turns Lower on Lackluster NFP Data

(Created Using TradingView Charts)

Traders should also continue to monitor short term price action going into today’s weekly close. Below we can see the EUR/USD on a 10minute chart using the Grid Sight Index (GSI). Currently GSI is showing a short term uptrend in place, as the EUR/USD is bouncing off of daily lows at 1.1079. Also, after analyzing 83,438,920 pricing points, GSI has found that prices have risen by 21 pips or more in 42% of identified historical matching events. That places the first current historical price distribution at 1.1125. A move through this value should be seen as significant, as the EUR/USD may be set to close above the previously mentioned point of resistance.

Alternatively, GSI has sited that prices have declined by 40 pips or more in 21% of the matching 67 historical events. While the EUR/USD is trading considerably away from the first bearish distribution point at 1.1064, a move to this value would have the EUR/USD trading at new weekly lows. In this scenario, the EUR/USD would be seen as picking up new bearish momentum going into the close allowing traders to then target new lower lows.

EUR/USD Turns Lower on Lackluster NFP Data

--- Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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