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WTI Crude Oil Price Bounces on BOC News

WTI Crude Oil Price Bounces on BOC News

Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor

Talking Points

The price of WTI Crude Oil (CFD:USOil) declined lower early this morning in anticipation of today’s Bank of Canada Rate Decision. No changes in policy were made, and interest rates were kept flat at 0.50%. Despite this news, Crude Oil prices are now seen rebounding on expectations that additional rate cuts may not be needed. As prices rebound, traders will next look for resistance created from a descending trend line. If Crude Oil fails to break above this value near $46.42, it may suggest a return to a bearish bias for the commodity in the short term.

WTI Crude Oil Price, 30 Minute Chart

(Created by Walker England)

In the graph below, we can see Oil prices turning from the lows of the day at $45.91. Despite this retracement in price, the Grid Sight Index has pinpointed a short-term downtrend developing over the last hour. As volatility from this morning’s BOC event shakes out, traders should continue to monitor short-term momentum to help determine if this move is part of a broader reversal in Crude Oil prices... After reviewing 4,249,087 pricing points, GSI has indicated that price action has declined by a minimum of 11 cents in 75% of the 169 matching historical events. This places today’s first bearish distribution at a price of $45.81. A move to this value would be significant as Crude Oil prices would be printing new daily lows at this point, and would suggest a short-term continuation of the identified downtrend.

Of the matching historical outcomes, prices advanced 56 cents in 4% of instances. As indicated in the graph below, today’s last bullish historical distribution lies at $46.48. A move to this point would suggest renewed bullish momentum for the commodity and put the daily high at $46.62 back in play.

Want to learn more about GSI? Get started learning about the Index HERE.

WTI Crude Oil (UsOil) 5 Minute GSI Chart

Sentiment for WTI Crude Oil (Ticker: USOil) remains relatively flat with SSI (speculative sentiment index) reading at -1.025. With positioning nearly split between long and short positions, this may indicate continued consolidation for Oil. In the event that Crude Oil prices break lower, traders may look for SSI to flip to a positive reading. Alternatively, if Oil breaks above resistance, SSI may begin to shift back towards extremes that are more negative.

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Contact and Follow Walker on Twitter @WEnglandFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.