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The EUR/USD Fails to Breakout Lower Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD Fails to Breakout Lower Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2016-04-06 13:40:00
Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor
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Talking Points

  • The EUR/USD Opens With a False Breakout
  • Bullish Breakouts Begin Over 1.1417.
  • SSI Reads at a Negative Extreme of -2.2075

EUR/USD 30 Minute

The EUR/USD Fails to Breakout Lower Ahead of FOMC Minutes

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

What do DailyFX analysts expect from the US Dollar for 2016? Find out here!

The EUR/USD has failed to breakout lower this morning ahead of this afternoons FOMC meeting minutes release. Prices action is currently trading back inside of today’s trading range after initially attempting to breakout lower beneath the R4 Camarilla pivot point displayed above. If prices fail to closer lower, this would mark the second failed bearish breakout for the EUR/USD in the last two days. In the event that prices do attempt a second move lower, traders may extrapolate a 1X extension of today’s 38 pip range to place initial breakout targets near 1.1302.

Now that prices are trading back above the S3 pivot at 1.1360, it opens the EUR/USD to move towards values of resistance. Today’s R3 pivot at 1.1398 marks resistance for today’s trading range. If prices move beyond this point, it opens the EUR/USD to continue higher towards the R4 pivot at 1.1417. A move above R4 may signal a bullish breakout for the pair. In this scenario, traders may again extrapolate 1X todays range to place initial bullish targets near 1.1455.

Find out the latest positioning totals with DailyFX’s sentiment page

SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) for the EUR/USD currently reads at -2.20. This number has grown to extremes, as last week’s reading read -1.35. When taken as a contrarian signal an extreme negative SSI reading is typically taken as a bullish signal. Alternatively, in the event of a bearish reversal, traders should look for SSI to neutralize back towards a positive reading.

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