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Talking Points

  • USD/CAD Fails to Breakout on Crude Inventories Data
  • Bearish Breakouts Begin Under 1.3313
  • SSI Has Shifted to Read +1.22

USD/CAD 30 Minute Chart

The USD/CAD Trades Lower After Crude Inventories Data

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

Losing Money Trading? This Might Be Why.

The USD/CAD is trading back inside of Wednesday’s daily trading range, after prices failed to breakout higher above today’s R4 pivot point at 1.3495. This morning’s spike in price is attributed to the increased market volatility associated with the release of U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data. Crude inventories rose by 10.4 million barrels, which was significantly higher than expectations. With the USD/CAD now trading back inside of today’s R3 Camarilla Pivot point at 1.3450, traders may begin looking for prices to again test key points of support.

Today’s S3 pivot point is found at 1.3359. A decline to this value would be significant, as the USD/CAD would be printing a new weekly low. It is also worth mentioning that bearish breakouts today begin beneath 1.3313. A move to this point would completely invalidate this morning’s bullish momentum, while suggesting that prices are returning in the direction of the pair’s primary trend. Traders may extrapolate a 1X extension of today’s 91 pip range to place bearish breakout targets near 1.3222.

SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) for the USD/CAD is currently reading at +1.22. While this value is not extreme, it is important to note that SSI has significantly flipped from last week’s reading of -1.01. If SSI continues to move towards a positive extreme, this flip in sentiment may signal further declines for the pair.

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