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The EUR/USD Consolidates Ahead of Event Risk

The EUR/USD Consolidates Ahead of Event Risk

2016-02-17 14:35:00
Walker England, Forex Trading Instructor
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Talking Points

  • The EUR/USD Ranges Ahead of FOMC Minutes
  • Bullish Breakouts Began Over 1.1179
  • SSI is Bullish, Reading at -1.44

EUR/USD 30 Minute Chart

The EUR/USD Consolidates Ahead of Event Risk

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

Losing Money Trading? This Might Be Why.

The EUR/USD is ranging this morning ahead of today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 2:00 PM ET today. Currently, prices are remaining supported above the S3 Camarilla pivot point, which is found at a price of 1.1121. It should be noted that prices have so far traversed today’s 37-pip range twice. In the event that the EUR/USD stays supported, traders will again look for prices to test range resistance, which is found at a price of 1.1158.

Traders looking for a breakout should continue to monitor both the R4 and S4 pivot points. With this afternoon’s event risk, it raises the possibility of a late day breakout for the pair. Bullish breakouts begin above the R4 pivot point at a price of 1.1179. Conversely, bearish breakouts begin beneath today’s S4 pivot at a price of 1.1103. In either breakout scenario, traders may then elect to extrapolate 1-X of the previously mentioned trading range to find potential targets. This places initial bullish targets near 1.1216 and bearish targets near 1.1064 for the day.

SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) for the EUR/USD is currently reading at a neutral -1.44. With 59% of positioning short, this would be considered a bullish signal for the EUR/USD. If the pair does breakout higher today, traders should look for sentiment to reach for negative extremes of -2 or greater. Conversely, in the event of a lower low, traders would reasonably expect this value to trend back towards more natural values.

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