News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • Silver posting a strong session, now up 2.3% on the day. In recent trade, silver has struggled to break above the 50-day EMA $XAG $USD
  • Bitcoin sets another record high. BTC/USD gains traction in anticipation of Coinbase IPO. Get your $btc market update from @Tams707 here:
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Bostic Speech due at 19:15 GMT (15min)
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.28% Gold: 0.78% Oil - US Crude: 0.14% View the performance of all markets via
  • Mitch McConnell: There is no GOP support for repealing the tax bill $USD
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.36%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.62%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) continues to trade lower after losing the uptrend from the February and March swing lows. Get your $USD market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Fed: - Directors of the Federal Reserve saw inflation increasing to 2% or even above
  • Fed: - Directors saw economic recovery gaining momentum - Directors are upbeat about the future, but there is still a lot of doubt - No change in the discount rate was requested by directors of all 12 districts
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.33% US 500: 0.14% FTSE 100: -0.04% Germany 30: -0.05% Wall Street: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via
Strong & Weak: USDOLLAR Finds Strength after FOMC

Strong & Weak: USDOLLAR Finds Strength after FOMC

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

Talking Points:

-USDOLLAR was the largest gainer over the past week

-Shift in SSI readings suggests further gains are possible for USDOLLAR

-Buy USDOLLAR Currency Basket

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week provided the fuel to ignite the sleeping markets. Several currency pairs are trading near their 200 period Simple Moving Averages on the 4 hour chart. This suggests the markets are generally range bound and staying close to their averages.

However, there is one currency, the United Stated Dollar, which jolted awake and climbed up the Strong & Weak chart noted below. When comparing the price of the exchange rates relative to their 200 period Simple Moving Average, the Greenback changed trend the most and is now considered the strongest currency according to the Strong & Weak analysis.

(To learn more about the importance of trading with moving averages, enroll for this free Moving Average course. Learn how to determine trend direction using moving averages. The course will take about 15 minutes to complete.)

Forex Strategy: Matching Strong versus Weak


Up Arrows

Down Arrows

Change From Last Report




Higher 5 rankings




Down 1 ranking




No Change




Down 1 ranking




Higher 1 ranking




Down 2 rankings




Down 1 ranking




No Change

Chart created by DailyFX EDU Robert Warensjo

We have focused on the USDOLLAR quite a bit in our strong and weak analysis over the past several weeks. It all began September 22, 2013 when the Euro began thrusting higher.

As the USD was rebounding, the Euro wasn’t backing down. As a result the EURUSD pair finished the week on its highs. Also, when looking at the EURUSD weekly chart, there is a cluster of resistance in the 1.3750-1.3850 range. Therefore, this indicates to me that although the USD may perhaps find support, the EUR still has room to run higher against the USD.

“Euro Spurts and Maintains Strength” September 22, 2013

Then, a couple weeks later, a very tight range developed as the US Debt ceiling painted the USDOLLAR in a corner. A trading plan was presented with “the easiest way to determine [direction] is wait for price to break above resistance or below support.”

Eventually, prices did break lower and the USDOLLAR sell trade was entered. Eventually, the EURUSD pushed into the 1.3750-1.3850 resistance zone and both trades were closed down. As noted last week’s piece:

“The lack of follow through has me concerned about broad based USDOLLAR weakness. The single currency has several reasons to weaken, yet it remains stubborn. Therefore, be careful that the oversold levels may revert back to the mean and the Buck might actually strengthen.

As a result, the USDOLLAR appeared poised for strength.

Now, that the USD has proven itself, the landscape is changing that we can seek out USDOLLAR strength to buy.

Forex Education: USDOLLAR Sentiment Readings (BEFORE)

USDOLLAR_Finds_Strength_after_FOMC_body_Picture_3.png, Strong & Weak: USDOLLAR Finds Strength after FOMC

From October 25, 2013 (above) --- October 31, 2013 below

Forex Education: USDOLLAR Sentiment Readings (AFTER)

USDOLLAR_Finds_Strength_after_FOMC_body_Picture_2.png, Strong & Weak: USDOLLAR Finds Strength after FOMC

FXCM’s Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)

We’ve shown these SSI readings for the past several reports. The important take away is how the sentiment towards the USDOLLAR has shifted. The USD bulls actually got it right during this past week and the USD strengthened.

Now that they are slightly into the profit, they are reducing their positions evidenced in the positioning changes above. For example, a change in the EURUSD SSI from -4.5 to -2.1 means the percentage of USD buyers reduced from 81% to 68%. This change in sentiment is part of the fuel behind a new bullish stance towards the Greenback.

Forex Education: USDOLLAR in a Trend Channel

USDOLLAR_Finds_Strength_after_FOMC_body_Picture_1.png, Strong & Weak: USDOLLAR Finds Strength after FOMC

(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)

As we can see above, the Greenback is stuck inside this red trend channel. The next level of resistance is near 10,575 so the dollar should have a clear road until then. Due to the confluence of resistance near 10,575, there should be a reaction at that level. If the value of the USD were to strengthen above the 10,575 strong resistance, then that would likely confirm a medium to longer term bull market is kicking off.

Executing the Trade

Since we don’t know which currencies the USDOLLAR is likely to outperform against, so we will take a diversified approach and buy the USDOLLAR against a basket of currencies.

We recommend risking less than 5% on all open trades. As a result, risk less than 1-2% on this basket so you have additional capacity to take on other trades.

Good luck with your trading!

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX Education

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader.To be added to Jeremy’s e-mail distribution list, click HERE and select SUBSCRIBE then enter in your email information.

See Jeremy’s recent articles at his DailyFX Forex Educators Bio Page.

Want to keep on top of the Dollar’s move and what fundamental news is pushing it?

Join DailyFX on Demand where you can receive real time analysis of your trading ideas, real time SSI, and bank research of how funds are flowing. FXCM clients receive a discount. Join HERE.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.