The Building Blocks of Trend Analysis
June has seen the continuation of some long term established trends. Today we will specifically exploring Euro weakness, with trending opportunities on both the EURGBP and EURUSD, by applying our building blocks of trend development. By dividing our chart into segmented blocks, we will look to find momentum and the trend on the 30minute charts. By spotting past momentum, we can then focus on the strongest trending pairs for creating fresh short term trading opportunities for the remainder of the week.
The Euro has displayed weakness across a variety of pairs. As discussed in the yesterdays edition of Chart Of The Day, the EURGBP has declined 1133 pips over the last 12 trading months. More importantly the pair is also declining on a short term basis. The pair has decliend as much as 116 pips from its Block 1 high at .8101. This move culminated in a fresh low created in Block 2 at .7985. This weeks price action opened lower but price has since moderately retraced printing a lower high in place at 1.0325. Traders are watching todays price action specifically to see if our trend can continue to create new lows. If price breaks above .8039, the Block 2 high, this may send a message that our downtrend is at least temporarily on pause
Of all the Euro currency pairs none is more scrutinized than the EURUSD. With price previously driving downward, the pair has declined as much as 302 pips through Block 1 and 2. Not pausing, current price has continued its decline reaching a fresh daily low today at 1.2433.With strong momentum to the downside, short term preferences should be given to the creation lower lows. Traders may look for swings higher , under the Block 2 high at 1.254 as an opportunity to reestablish fresh sell positions.
Using the analysis above, my preference is to continue to find opportunities to sell the EURGBP and EURUSD into resumed momentum lower. Breakout traders can utilize entry orders on the EURGBP below current support at .7985. Short term traders may give bias to the strength of momentum on the EURUSD and continue to scalp the pair towards lower lows.
---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor
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